2004 · Week 4
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 86°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
DEN -3
Total
35
Model margin
-3.1est.
TB perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.059EPA / play-0.072
- 45.7%Success rate42.6%
- +0.154EPA / dropback+0.008
- -0.056EPA / rush-0.203
- 10.0%Explosive rate8.5%
- 38.2%Third-down rate37.9%
- 55.7%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
- 1.84Points / drive1.25
- 2.5%Turnover rate3.6%
- -0.069EPA / play allowed-0.089
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 34.3 points. TB are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 13/31 | 138 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quentin Griffin | 21 | 66 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Reuben Droughns | 8 | 20 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Darius Watts | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 15/23 | 162 | 1 | 0 |
| Chris Simms | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 15 | 72 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Michael Clayton | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
40.8%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.73
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.94
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.10