2004 · Week 4
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 86°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
DEN -3
Total
35
Model margin
-3.1est.
TB perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.059EPA / play-0.072
- 45.7%Success rate42.6%
- +0.154EPA / dropback+0.008
- -0.056EPA / rush-0.203
- 10.0%Explosive rate8.5%
- 38.2%Third-down rate37.9%
- 55.7%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
- 1.84Points / drive1.25
- 2.5%Turnover rate3.6%
- -0.069EPA / play allowed-0.089
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 34.3 points. TB are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 29 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 11:24 | 9 | 32 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 8:04 | 3 | 30 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 6:41 | 8 | 38 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| TB | Q1 3:01 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 7–0 |
| DEN | Q1 0:23 | 6 | 31 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| TB | Q2 13:14 | 5 | 60 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| DEN | Q2 10:50 | 10 | 44 | Field goal | 13–7 |
| TB | Q2 5:32 | 13 | 62 | Field goal | 13–10 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 13–10 |
| TB | Q3 13:26 | 8 | 51 | Field goal | 13–13 |
| DEN | Q3 8:15 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 13–13 |
| TB | Q3 6:18 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 13–13 |
| DEN | Q3 2:58 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 13–13 |
| TB | Q3 2:02 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 13–13 |
| DEN | Q3 0:35 | 14 | 42 | Field goal | 16–13 |
| TB | Q4 9:03 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 16–13 |
| DEN | Q4 7:26 | 15 | 54 | Punt | 16–13 |
| TB | Q4 0:03 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 16–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 13/31 | 138 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quentin Griffin | 21 | 66 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Reuben Droughns | 8 | 20 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Darius Watts | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 15/23 | 162 | 1 | 0 |
| Chris Simms | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 15 | 72 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Michael Clayton | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
40.8%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.73
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.94
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.10