2012 · Week 13

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Freeman

23·31

Broncos

Denver

QB Peyton Manning

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

DEN -9.5

Total

50

Model margin

+7.7est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapBroncos
  • +0.018EPA / play+0.113
  • 41.0%Success rate48.0%
  • +0.053EPA / dropback+0.271
  • -0.038EPA / rush-0.106
  • 9.8%Explosive rate9.9%
  • -4.01CPOE+7.00
  • 35.9%Third-down rate46.0%
  • 63.4%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
  • 1.74Points / drive2.26
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 34.3 points. DEN are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W3DEN @ TB26–7DEN
2020 · W3TB @ DEN28–10TB
2016 · W4DEN @ TB27–7DEN
2008 · W5TB @ DEN13–16DEN
2004 · W4DEN @ TB16–13DEN
1999 · W3DEN @ TB10–13TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–DEN
TBQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
DENQ1 12:471250Touchdown0–7
TBQ1 8:47851Field goal3–7
DENQ1 4:41414Punt3–7
TBQ1 2:45565Touchdown10–7
DENQ1 0:14940Punt10–7
TBQ2 10:371433Punt10–7
DENQ2 4:35646Punt10–7
TBQ2 1:45313End of half10–7
DENQ3 15:00722Punt10–7
TBQ3 11:4532Punt10–7
DENQ3 10:43536Touchdown10–14
TBQ3 9:2148Punt10–14
DENQ3 8:02752Touchdown10–21
TBQ3 4:3922Opp touchdown10–28
TBQ3 3:56414Punt10–28
DENQ3 2:1610Turnover10–28
TBQ3 2:06721Field goal13–28
DENQ4 14:551368Field goal13–31
TBQ4 7:36615Turnover on downs13–31
DENQ4 6:1336Missed field goal13–31
TBQ4 4:37426Field goal16–31
DENQ4 3:233-3Punt16–31
TBQ4 2:57447Touchdown23–31
DENQ4 2:3327End of half23–31

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Freeman18/3924221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Doug Martin18563.10
D.J. Ware188.00
Josh Freeman273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Williams612931
Vincent Jackson38550
Doug Martin34420
Dallas Clark35211
Luke Stocker22190
Tiquan Underwood16120
D.J. Ware0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning27/3824231

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Knowshon Moreno20693.50
Ronnie Hillman5295.80
Lance Ball2-2-1.00
Peyton Manning2-5-2.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas810992
Jacob Tamme913890
Matt Willis35220
Eric Decker22170
Knowshon Moreno45140
Joel Dreessen0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.55.7%7.1%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.7%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

3.42%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

69.2%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.23
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.72