2012 · Week 13
Final
Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 4mph
Closing spread
DEN -9.5
Total
50
Model margin
+7.7est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.018EPA / play+0.113
- 41.0%Success rate48.0%
- +0.053EPA / dropback+0.271
- -0.038EPA / rush-0.106
- 9.8%Explosive rate9.9%
- -4.01CPOE+7.00
- 35.9%Third-down rate46.0%
- 63.4%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
- 1.74Points / drive2.26
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 34.3 points. DEN are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 18/39 | 242 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 18 | 56 | 3.1 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Josh Freeman | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 6 | 12 | 93 | 1 |
| Vincent Jackson | 3 | 8 | 55 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 3 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Dallas Clark | 3 | 5 | 21 | 1 |
| Luke Stocker | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Tiquan Underwood | 1 | 6 | 12 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 27/38 | 242 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | 20 | 69 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Lance Ball | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | -5 | -2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 8 | 10 | 99 | 2 |
| Jacob Tamme | 9 | 13 | 89 | 0 |
| Matt Willis | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 4 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Joel Dreessen | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
3.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
69.2%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.23
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.72