Closing spread
SF -1.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
-0.8est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.007EPA / play-0.036
- 40.1%Success rate41.7%
- +0.067EPA / dropback-0.026
- -0.083EPA / rush-0.054
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.5%
- 39.0%Third-down rate34.4%
- 58.0%Red-zone TD rate42.7%
- 1.52Points / drive1.14
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.042EPA / play allowed+0.079
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 50.9 points. SF are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil O'Donnell | 20/40 | 355 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodney Thomas | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 15 | 26 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Neil O'Donnell | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yancey Thigpen | 6 | 11 | 143 | 1 |
| Eddie George | 3 | 5 | 81 | 1 |
| Frank Wycheck | 5 | 8 | 50 | 0 |
| Chris Sanders | 1 | 1 | 32 | 0 |
| Kevin Dyson | 2 | 8 | 25 | 0 |
| Michael Roan | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rodney Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 21/33 | 243 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Garner | 12 | 69 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 8 | 8 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Lawrence Phillips | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Rice | 6 | 8 | 56 | 0 |
| Charlie Garner | 4 | 4 | 47 | 1 |
| Tony Cline | 2 | 2 | 39 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 3 | 4 | 33 | 1 |
| Greg Clark | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Chad Fann | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mark Harris | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Lawrence Phillips | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.9%
Expected total
46.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.17
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.12
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-0.80