Closing spread
SF -12.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+6.7est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.148EPA / play+0.091
- 37.9%Success rate48.5%
- -0.165EPA / dropback+0.175
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.033
- 7.3%Explosive rate8.2%
- -3.50CPOE+5.72
- 32.0%Third-down rate50.4%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate65.6%
- 1.36Points / drive2.48
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 50.9 points. SF are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward | 18/29 | 170 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 14 | 104 | 7.4 | 1 |
| Tyjae Spears | 3 | 34 | 11.3 | 0 |
| Kalel Mullings | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Cam Ward | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Chimere Dike | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gunnar Helm | 4 | 4 | 49 | 1 |
| Van Jefferson | 1 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 4 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Elic Ayomanor | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Chimere Dike | 4 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| James Proche | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 23/30 | 295 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 22 | 73 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Brock Purdy | 7 | 44 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 9 | 21 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Pearsall | 6 | 7 | 96 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 8 | 9 | 88 | 1 |
| Jauan Jennings | 3 | 5 | 37 | 2 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 2 | 2 | 36 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
1.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.6%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.40
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+6.66