2013 · Week 7

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

31·17

Titans

Tennessee

QB Jake Locker

LP Field · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

SF -3

Total

41

Model margin

+0.0est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Titans wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapTitans
  • +0.034EPA / play+0.020
  • 41.8%Success rate42.3%
  • +0.156EPA / dropback+0.116
  • -0.110EPA / rush-0.124
  • 10.6%Explosive rate7.7%
  • -1.63CPOE+1.14
  • 37.8%Third-down rate41.0%
  • 57.4%Red-zone TD rate63.4%
  • 1.99Points / drive1.79
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 50.9 points. TEN are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15TEN @ SF24–37SF
2021 · W16SF @ TEN17–20TEN
2017 · W15TEN @ SF23–25SF
2009 · W9TEN @ SF34–27TEN
2005 · W12SF @ TEN22–33TEN
1999 · W4TEN @ SF22–24SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–TEN
TENQ1 15:00635Punt0–0
SFQ1 11:531165Field goal3–0
TENQ1 5:19742Punt3–0
SFQ1 1:3635Punt3–0
TENQ2 14:47610Punt3–0
SFQ2 11:28970Touchdown10–0
TENQ2 6:42314Turnover10–0
SFQ2 5:09645Touchdown17–0
TENQ2 2:07633End of half17–0
SFQ3 15:001279Touchdown24–0
TENQ3 7:2039Punt24–0
SFQ3 5:4239Punt24–0
TENQ3 4:0238Punt24–0
SFQ3 3:26439Punt24–0
TENQ3 1:061072Field goal24–3
SFQ4 12:2346Punt24–3
TENQ4 10:163-3Punt24–3
SFQ4 9:2235Punt24–3
TENQ4 7:42286Touchdown24–10
SFQ4 7:07514Touchdown31–10
TENQ4 6:161162Touchdown31–17
SFQ4 3:17214End of half31–17

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick13/2119900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore24702.92
Colin Kaepernick11686.21
Anthony Dixon188.00
Kendall Hunter461.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anquan Boldin56740
Vernon Davis48620
Frank Gore23340
Vance McDonald12200
Kyle Williams0100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Locker25/4132621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson9394.30
Jake Locker3299.70
Shonn Greene122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kendall Wright912980
Chris Johnson44711
Nate Washington310620
Delanie Walker35521
Damian Williams33250
Kenny Britt1280
Jackie Battle1160
Darius Reynaud1240
Justin Hunter0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

7.35%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.2%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.83
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.62
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.04