Closing spread
SF -3
Total
41
Model margin
+0.0est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.034EPA / play+0.020
- 41.8%Success rate42.3%
- +0.156EPA / dropback+0.116
- -0.110EPA / rush-0.124
- 10.6%Explosive rate7.7%
- -1.63CPOE+1.14
- 37.8%Third-down rate41.0%
- 57.4%Red-zone TD rate63.4%
- 1.99Points / drive1.79
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 50.9 points. TEN are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 13/21 | 199 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 24 | 70 | 2.9 | 2 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 11 | 68 | 6.2 | 1 |
| Anthony Dixon | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Kendall Hunter | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 5 | 6 | 74 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 4 | 8 | 62 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 2 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Kyle Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Locker | 25/41 | 326 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 9 | 39 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jake Locker | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendall Wright | 9 | 12 | 98 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 4 | 4 | 71 | 1 |
| Nate Washington | 3 | 10 | 62 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 3 | 5 | 52 | 1 |
| Damian Williams | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Kenny Britt | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Jackie Battle | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Darius Reynaud | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Justin Hunter | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
7.35%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.2%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.83
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.62
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.04