2021 · Week 16

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

17·20

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 48°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

SF -3.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+1.6est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Titans wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapTitans
  • +0.085EPA / play+0.025
  • 45.5%Success rate44.7%
  • +0.174EPA / dropback+0.092
  • -0.024EPA / rush-0.054
  • 10.9%Explosive rate7.8%
  • +1.73CPOE+2.33
  • 40.6%Third-down rate43.8%
  • 74.8%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
  • 2.30Points / drive2.15
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 50.9 points. TEN are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15TEN @ SF24–37SF
2017 · W15TEN @ SF23–25SF
2013 · W7SF @ TEN31–17SF
2009 · W9TEN @ SF34–27TEN
2005 · W12SF @ TEN22–33TEN
1999 · W4TEN @ SF22–24SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–TEN
SFQ1 15:00975Touchdown7–0
TENQ1 9:5768Punt7–0
SFQ1 5:41857Turnover7–0
TENQ1 1:3134Punt7–0
SFQ2 14:501148Field goal10–0
TENQ2 8:31731Punt10–0
SFQ2 4:373-7Punt10–0
TENQ2 3:07712Punt10–0
SFQ2 1:20418End of half10–0
TENQ3 15:001260Field goal10–3
SFQ3 8:4510Turnover10–3
TENQ3 8:36418Touchdown10–10
SFQ3 7:13845Turnover on downs10–10
TENQ3 1:53869Touchdown10–17
SFQ4 13:02742Punt10–17
TENQ4 9:24733Punt10–17
SFQ4 5:18895Touchdown17–17
TENQ4 2:20843Field goal17–20
SFQ4 0:04116End of half17–20

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo26/3532212

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeff Wilson14453.21
Deebo Samuel Sr.5326.40
Jimmy Garoppolo133.00
JaMycal Hasty133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Deebo Samuel Sr.9111590
Brandon Aiyuk45401
JaMycal Hasty33260
George Kittle23210
Jauan Jennings25190
Jeff Wilson33120

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill22/2920910
A.J. Brown0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeremy McNichols7314.40
Ryan Tannehill3227.30
Dontrell Hilliard5204.00
D'Onta Foreman9171.91

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown11161451
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine23380
Anthony Firkser11130
Geoff Swaim33100
Julio Jones1170
Chester Rogers1130
Jeremy McNichols0100
Racey McMath0100
Dontrell Hilliard22-60

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

7.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.5%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.07
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.64