Closing spread
SF -3.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.085EPA / play+0.025
- 45.5%Success rate44.7%
- +0.174EPA / dropback+0.092
- -0.024EPA / rush-0.054
- 10.9%Explosive rate7.8%
- +1.73CPOE+2.33
- 40.6%Third-down rate43.8%
- 74.8%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
- 2.30Points / drive2.15
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 50.9 points. TEN are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 26/35 | 322 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Wilson | 14 | 45 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 9 | 11 | 159 | 0 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 4 | 5 | 40 | 1 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 22/29 | 209 | 1 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy McNichols | 7 | 31 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 9 | 17 | 1.9 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 11 | 16 | 145 | 1 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 2 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Racey McMath | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 2 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
7.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.5%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.07
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.64