Closing spread
TEN -7
Total
42.5
Model margin
-2.4est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
4.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.203EPA / play-0.113
- 34.0%Success rate40.6%
- -0.265EPA / dropback-0.080
- -0.129EPA / rush-0.171
- 6.8%Explosive rate6.1%
- 25.0%Third-down rate34.5%
- 34.8%Red-zone TD rate51.6%
- 0.94Points / drive1.17
- 3.5%Turnover rate2.5%
- +0.076EPA / play allowed+0.045
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 50.9 points. TEN are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–TEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 13:40 | 7 | 47 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 12:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 10:29 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 9:03 | 10 | 54 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 2:40 | 5 | 69 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| SF | Q1 0:04 | 10 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| TEN | Q2 9:20 | 13 | 62 | Field goal | 7–6 |
| SF | Q2 4:03 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 7–6 |
| TEN | Q2 3:37 | 3 | 4 | Field goal | 7–9 |
| SF | Q2 2:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–9 |
| TEN | Q2 1:14 | 5 | 16 | Opp touchdown | 14–9 |
| TEN | Q2 0:27 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–9 |
| TEN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 14–15 |
| TEN | Q3 13:28 | 1 | 41 | Touchdown | 14–16 |
| SF | Q3 13:18 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 14–22 |
| TEN | Q3 12:08 | 1 | 50 | Touchdown | 14–23 |
| SF | Q3 11:59 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 14–23 |
| TEN | Q3 9:54 | 8 | 68 | Touchdown | 14–30 |
| SF | Q3 4:54 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 14–30 |
| TEN | Q3 3:25 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 14–30 |
| SF | Q3 1:42 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 14–30 |
| TEN | Q4 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 14–30 |
| SF | Q4 12:57 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 14–30 |
| TEN | Q4 12:46 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 14–30 |
| SF | Q4 11:51 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 14–30 |
| TEN | Q4 9:52 | 10 | 76 | Field goal | 14–33 |
| SF | Q4 3:35 | 16 | 67 | Touchdown | 22–33 |
| TEN | Q4 1:15 | 0 | 0 | Turnover | 22–33 |
| SF | Q4 1:12 | 6 | 23 | Turnover | 22–33 |
| TEN | Q4 0:05 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 22–33 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Dorsey | 23/43 | 192 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 14 | 40 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Maurice Hicks | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Arnaz Battle | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 23/41 | 343 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 13 | 86 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Chris Brown | 10 | 30 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jarrett Payton | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
4.01%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.7%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.19
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-5.13
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.38