Closing spread
TEN -7
Total
42.5
Model margin
-2.4est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
4.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.203EPA / play-0.113
- 34.0%Success rate40.6%
- -0.265EPA / dropback-0.080
- -0.129EPA / rush-0.171
- 6.8%Explosive rate6.1%
- 25.0%Third-down rate34.5%
- 34.8%Red-zone TD rate51.6%
- 0.94Points / drive1.17
- 3.5%Turnover rate2.5%
- +0.076EPA / play allowed+0.045
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 50.9 points. TEN are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Dorsey | 23/43 | 192 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 14 | 40 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Maurice Hicks | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Arnaz Battle | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 23/41 | 343 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 13 | 86 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Chris Brown | 10 | 30 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jarrett Payton | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
4.01%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.7%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.19
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-5.13
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.38