Closing spread
SF -4.5
Total
41
Model margin
+3.8est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.010EPA / play-0.067
- 40.8%Success rate37.0%
- +0.042EPA / dropback-0.055
- -0.026EPA / rush-0.087
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.1%
- -2.63CPOE-2.69
- 41.0%Third-down rate29.4%
- 60.6%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- 1.79Points / drive1.54
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 50.9 points. SF are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 12/19 | 172 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 25 | 135 | 5.4 | 2 |
| Vince Young | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 1 |
| LenDale White | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Gage | 4 | 8 | 97 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Bo Scaife | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 29/45 | 286 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 15 | 83 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Glen Coffee | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vernon Davis | 10 | 11 | 102 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 7 | 9 | 75 | 0 |
| Jason Hill | 4 | 4 | 50 | 2 |
| Michael Crabtree | 3 | 8 | 30 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 2 | 7 | 9 | 0 |
| Isaac Bruce | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.2%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.31
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.80