2009 · Week 9

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Vince Young

34·27

49ers

San Francisco

QB Alex Smith

Candlestick Park · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

SF -4.5

Total

41

Model margin

+3.8est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge map49ers
  • +0.010EPA / play-0.067
  • 40.8%Success rate37.0%
  • +0.042EPA / dropback-0.055
  • -0.026EPA / rush-0.087
  • 9.0%Explosive rate8.1%
  • -2.63CPOE-2.69
  • 41.0%Third-down rate29.4%
  • 60.6%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.54
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 50.9 points. SF are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15TEN @ SF24–37SF
2021 · W16SF @ TEN17–20TEN
2017 · W15TEN @ SF23–25SF
2013 · W7SF @ TEN31–17SF
2005 · W12SF @ TEN22–33TEN
1999 · W4TEN @ SF22–24SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–SF
TENQ1 15:00629Punt0–0
SFQ1 12:15757Field goal0–3
TENQ1 8:35677Field goal3–3
SFQ1 5:56410Punt3–3
TENQ1 3:4531Punt3–3
SFQ1 2:1432Turnover3–3
TENQ1 1:13624Touchdown10–3
SFQ2 13:08765Touchdown10–10
TENQ2 9:313-8Punt10–10
SFQ2 8:033-9Punt10–10
TENQ2 5:57433Punt10–10
SFQ2 3:32977Touchdown10–17
TENQ2 0:2019End of half10–17
SFQ3 15:00618Punt10–17
TENQ3 11:3036Punt10–17
SFQ3 10:0935Turnover10–17
TENQ3 8:46736Touchdown17–17
SFQ3 5:401771Field goal17–20
TENQ4 10:55881Touchdown24–20
SFQ4 7:1122Turnover24–20
TENQ4 6:13629Field goal27–20
SFQ4 3:0610Opp touchdown34–20
SFQ4 2:511160Touchdown34–27
TENQ4 0:3900End of half34–27

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Vince Young12/1917200
Chris Johnson0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson251355.42
Vince Young5142.81
LenDale White430.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Gage48970
Nate Washington35300
Chris Johnson34250
Bo Scaife23200

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith29/4528623

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore15835.51
Alex Smith2115.50
Josh Morgan11111.00
Glen Coffee144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Vernon Davis10111020
Frank Gore79750
Jason Hill44502
Michael Crabtree38300
Delanie Walker12130
Josh Morgan2790
Isaac Bruce1230

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.2%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.31
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.80