Closing spread
SF -2.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+10.1est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.069EPA / play-0.041
- 42.6%Success rate41.2%
- -0.057EPA / dropback-0.001
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.110
- 7.7%Explosive rate9.2%
- +0.43CPOE-3.27
- 36.0%Third-down rate39.5%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate45.0%
- 1.73Points / drive1.75
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 50.9 points. SF are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 23/33 | 241 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 18 | 59 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Taywan Taylor | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rishard Matthews | 6 | 8 | 95 | 1 |
| Eric Decker | 5 | 5 | 63 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 5 | 10 | 37 | 1 |
| Corey Davis | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 31/43 | 381 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 16 | 25 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Goodwin | 10 | 13 | 114 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 4 | 6 | 85 | 0 |
| Garrett Celek | 3 | 3 | 63 | 1 |
| George Kittle | 4 | 5 | 52 | 0 |
| Trent Taylor | 4 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 1 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
6.67%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
74.6%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.61
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+7.75
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+10.10