2017 · Week 15

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

23·25

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 17mph

Closing spread

SF -2.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+10.1est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge map49ers
  • -0.069EPA / play-0.041
  • 42.6%Success rate41.2%
  • -0.057EPA / dropback-0.001
  • -0.086EPA / rush-0.110
  • 7.7%Explosive rate9.2%
  • +0.43CPOE-3.27
  • 36.0%Third-down rate39.5%
  • 61.4%Red-zone TD rate45.0%
  • 1.73Points / drive1.75
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 50.9 points. SF are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15TEN @ SF24–37SF
2021 · W16SF @ TEN17–20TEN
2013 · W7SF @ TEN31–17SF
2009 · W9TEN @ SF34–27TEN
2005 · W12SF @ TEN22–33TEN
1999 · W4TEN @ SF22–24SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–SF
SFQ1 15:001164Field goal0–3
TENQ1 8:5132Punt0–3
SFQ1 6:38638Field goal0–6
TENQ1 4:351153Field goal3–6
SFQ2 14:061880Touchdown3–13
TENQ2 5:30317Turnover3–13
SFQ2 4:27936Field goal3–16
TENQ2 1:37664Touchdown10–16
SFQ2 0:2911End of half10–16
TENQ3 15:001457Field goal13–16
SFQ3 8:29519Punt13–16
TENQ3 5:321279Touchdown20–16
SFQ4 13:31751Field goal20–19
TENQ4 8:27413Punt20–19
SFQ4 6:28777Field goal20–22
TENQ4 3:08213Field goal20–22
TENQ4 2:5810Field goal20–22
TENQ4 2:54730Field goal23–22
SFQ4 1:0700Field goal23–22
SFQ4 1:07548Field goal23–25
SFQ4 0:0000Field goal23–25

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota23/3324120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray18593.30
Derrick Henry7192.70
Taywan Taylor188.00
Marcus Mariota242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rishard Matthews68951
Eric Decker55630
Delanie Walker510371
Corey Davis35280
Derrick Henry2290
Jonnu Smith1150
DeMarco Murray1140
Luke Stocker0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo31/4338110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carlos Hyde16251.60
Matt Breida5163.20
Marquise Goodwin11010.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquise Goodwin10131140
Kendrick Bourne46850
Garrett Celek33631
George Kittle45520
Trent Taylor45400
Carlos Hyde22140
Aldrick Robinson1230
Logan Paulsen0100
Jimmy Garoppolo11-60

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.4%4.9%6.7%2.3%3.1%4.9%3.5%3.5%2.9%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

6.67%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

74.6%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.61
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+7.75
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+10.10