Closing spread
DET -3.5
Total
40
Model margin
+1.7est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 4–3 since 1999
DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. DET are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–DET |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 12:55 | 3 | 9 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| DET | Q1 11:38 | 2 | -4 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 10:49 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DET | Q1 9:40 | 7 | 73 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 5:20 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DET | Q1 3:35 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 3:12 | 11 | 69 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| DET | Q2 13:22 | 13 | 55 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| LAC | Q2 6:53 | 11 | 90 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| DET | Q2 0:42 | 1 | -3 | End of half | 10–10 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 25 | Punt | 10–10 |
| DET | Q3 11:48 | 2 | 1 | Turnover | 10–10 |
| LAC | Q3 11:16 | 3 | 7 | Field goal | 13–10 |
| DET | Q3 9:48 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 13–10 |
| LAC | Q3 7:22 | 4 | 11 | Turnover | 13–10 |
| DET | Q3 5:39 | 7 | 20 | Turnover on downs | 13–10 |
| LAC | Q3 1:44 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 13–10 |
| DET | Q3 0:04 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 13–10 |
| LAC | Q4 13:52 | 9 | 29 | Missed field goal | 13–10 |
| DET | Q4 8:24 | 3 | 4 | Opp touchdown | 20–10 |
| LAC | Q4 7:52 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 20–10 |
| DET | Q4 7:52 | 10 | 19 | Punt | 20–10 |
| LAC | Q4 3:38 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 20–10 |
| DET | Q4 2:08 | 9 | 35 | Turnover on downs | 20–10 |
| LAC | Q4 0:12 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Batch | 21/38 | 230 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Rivers | 13 | 30 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Greg Hill | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Sedrick Irvin | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germane Crowell | 6 | 16 | 99 | 1 |
| Johnnie Morton | 6 | 10 | 68 | 0 |
| Ron Rivers | 9 | 9 | 63 | 0 |
| David Sloan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.7%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.23
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.18
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.71
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.