Closing spread
DET -3.5
Total
40
Model margin
+1.7est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 4–3 since 1999
DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. DET are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Batch | 21/38 | 230 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Rivers | 13 | 30 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Greg Hill | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Sedrick Irvin | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germane Crowell | 6 | 16 | 99 | 1 |
| Johnnie Morton | 6 | 10 | 68 | 0 |
| Ron Rivers | 9 | 9 | 63 | 0 |
| David Sloan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.7%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.23
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.18
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.71
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.