Closing spread
SD -3.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 4–3 since 1999
DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. SD are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 19/30 | 246 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ameer Abdullah | 7 | 50 | 7.1 | 1 |
| Joique Bell | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Zach Zenner | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Ebron | 4 | 5 | 53 | 1 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 4 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Calvin Johnson | 2 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 2 | 2 | 37 | 1 |
| Joique Bell | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 4 | 8 | 24 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.6%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.43
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.06
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.