Closing spread
SD -3.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Lions
- OutCaraun ReidDTAnkle· DNP
- OutLarry WarfordGAnkle· DNP
- DoubtfulDeAndre LevyLBHip· DNP
- QuestionableLaAdrian WaddleTElbow· Full
- ProbableEric EbronTEAnkle· Full
- ProbableTahir WhiteheadLBElbow· Full
Chargers
- OutJohnnie TroutmanGForearm· DNP
- OutTourek WilliamsLBFoot· DNP
- QuestionableCraig MagerCBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableJeremiah AttaochuLBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableLadarius GreenTEConcussion· Full
Win probability
- Chargers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 4–3 since 1999
DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. SD are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DET–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q1 10:46 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 7–0 |
| DET | Q1 8:28 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q1 7:24 | 12 | 73 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| DET | Q1 0:22 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LAC | Q2 14:00 | 3 | 9 | Opp touchdown | 14–3 |
| LAC | Q2 12:28 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 14–3 |
| DET | Q2 10:55 | 4 | 46 | Touchdown | 21–3 |
| LAC | Q2 8:49 | 7 | 60 | Touchdown | 21–10 |
| DET | Q2 5:02 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 21–10 |
| LAC | Q2 3:00 | 9 | 74 | Turnover | 21–10 |
| DET | Q2 0:07 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 21–10 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 73 | Field goal | 21–13 |
| DET | Q3 9:21 | 4 | 42 | Turnover | 21–13 |
| LAC | Q3 7:49 | 3 | 24 | Turnover | 21–13 |
| DET | Q3 6:47 | 3 | -4 | Turnover | 21–13 |
| LAC | Q3 5:15 | 3 | 16 | Touchdown | 21–20 |
| DET | Q3 4:03 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 21–20 |
| LAC | Q3 0:41 | 7 | 70 | Touchdown | 21–26 |
| DET | Q4 11:49 | 6 | 28 | Punt | 21–26 |
| LAC | Q4 8:51 | 12 | 96 | Touchdown | 21–33 |
| DET | Q4 2:33 | 7 | 83 | Touchdown | 28–33 |
| LAC | Q4 1:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 28–33 |
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 19/30 | 246 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ameer Abdullah | 7 | 50 | 7.1 | 1 |
| Joique Bell | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Zach Zenner | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Ebron | 4 | 5 | 53 | 1 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 4 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Calvin Johnson | 2 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 2 | 2 | 37 | 1 |
| Joique Bell | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 4 | 8 | 24 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.6%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.43
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.06
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.