Closing spread
SD -1
Total
52.5
Model margin
+2.7est.
DET perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Lions
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 4–3 since 1999
DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. DET are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 29/36 | 373 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Smith | 15 | 49 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Maurice Morris | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 4 | 6 | 102 | 1 |
| Nate Burleson | 6 | 7 | 83 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 9 | 10 | 80 | 1 |
| Tony Scheffler | 3 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
| Titus Young | 4 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Kevin Smith | 2 | 3 | 12 | 1 |
| Maurice Morris | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.4%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.24
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.73
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.