Closing spread
SD -1
Total
52.5
Model margin
+2.7est.
DET perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chargers
- OutTravis LaBoyLBKnee· DNP
- QuestionableAntonio GarayDTToe· Limited
- QuestionableVincent JacksonWRGroin· DNP
- ProbableDonald ButlerLBFoot· Full
Lions
- DoubtfulAaron BerryCBShoulder· Limited
- DoubtfulLouis DelmasSKnee· DNP
- QuestionableCorey WilliamsDTHip· DNP
- QuestionableNick FairleyDTFoot· Limited
- ProbableDon CareyCBConcussion· Limited
- ProbableWillie YoungDEAnkle· Limited
- ProbableAmari SpieveySKnee· Full
- ProbableChris HarrisSConcussion· Full
- ProbableChris HoustonCBKnee· Full
- ProbableGosder CherilusTHamstring· Full
- ProbableJustin DurantLBHamstring· Full
- ProbableKevin SmithRBAnkle· Full
- ProbableKyle Vanden BoschDENeck· Full
- ProbableLawrence JacksonDEThigh· Full
- ProbableRob SimsGShoulder· Full
Win probability
- Lions
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 4–3 since 1999
DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. DET are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–DET |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 74 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 10:52 | 6 | 28 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DET | Q1 7:03 | 12 | 70 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| LAC | Q1 0:33 | 6 | 34 | Punt | 0–10 |
| DET | Q2 12:27 | 11 | 87 | Touchdown | 0–17 |
| LAC | Q2 7:11 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 0–17 |
| DET | Q2 4:53 | 9 | 74 | Touchdown | 0–24 |
| LAC | Q2 0:31 | 5 | 16 | End of half | 0–24 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 0–24 |
| DET | Q3 12:46 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–24 |
| LAC | Q3 10:42 | 6 | 67 | Touchdown | 7–24 |
| DET | Q3 8:38 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 7–24 |
| LAC | Q3 8:29 | 9 | 43 | Field goal | 10–24 |
| DET | Q3 4:53 | 9 | 80 | Touchdown | 10–31 |
| LAC | Q3 0:16 | 14 | 78 | Turnover on downs | 10–31 |
| DET | Q4 10:59 | 6 | 38 | Punt | 10–31 |
| LAC | Q4 7:18 | 8 | 26 | Turnover | 10–31 |
| DET | Q4 4:39 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 10–31 |
| LAC | Q4 2:56 | 2 | 9 | Opp touchdown | 10–38 |
| LAC | Q4 2:28 | 4 | 27 | End of half | 10–38 |
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 29/36 | 373 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Smith | 15 | 49 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Maurice Morris | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 4 | 6 | 102 | 1 |
| Nate Burleson | 6 | 7 | 83 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 9 | 10 | 80 | 1 |
| Tony Scheffler | 3 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
| Titus Young | 4 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Kevin Smith | 2 | 3 | 12 | 1 |
| Maurice Morris | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.4%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.24
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.73
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.