Closing spread
SD -9.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+4.9est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 4–3 since 1999
DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. SD are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DET–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 13:26 | 7 | 62 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| DET | Q1 10:04 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 8:52 | 12 | 73 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| DET | Q1 3:06 | 2 | 1 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| LAC | Q1 2:11 | 4 | 3 | Touchdown | 0–17 |
| DET | Q1 1:13 | 4 | 24 | Turnover | 0–17 |
| LAC | Q2 14:54 | 10 | 47 | Field goal | 0–20 |
| DET | Q2 8:36 | 1 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 0–27 |
| DET | Q2 8:23 | 11 | 66 | Touchdown | 7–27 |
| LAC | Q2 2:50 | 8 | 79 | Touchdown | 7–34 |
| DET | Q2 0:27 | 4 | 83 | End of half | 7–34 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 13 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–41 |
| DET | Q3 8:35 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 7–41 |
| LAC | Q3 8:27 | 3 | 2 | Field goal | 7–44 |
| DET | Q3 5:52 | 10 | 69 | Touchdown | 14–44 |
| LAC | Q3 3:03 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 14–44 |
| DET | Q3 1:14 | 5 | 39 | Turnover | 14–44 |
| LAC | Q4 14:54 | 6 | 35 | Turnover on downs | 14–44 |
| DET | Q4 11:05 | 5 | 25 | Turnover on downs | 14–44 |
| LAC | Q4 10:12 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 14–44 |
| DET | Q4 7:47 | 6 | 6 | Turnover | 14–44 |
| LAC | Q4 6:40 | 6 | 27 | Touchdown | 14–51 |
| DET | Q4 2:58 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 14–51 |
| LAC | Q4 2:00 | 3 | -2 | End of half | 14–51 |
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 26/45 | 302 | 2 | 5 |
| J.T. O'Sullivan | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Jones | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
3.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.2%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.38
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.94
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.