Closing spread
SD -9.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+4.9est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 4–3 since 1999
DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. SD are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 26/45 | 302 | 2 | 5 |
| J.T. O'Sullivan | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Jones | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
3.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.2%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.38
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.94
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.