2023 · Week 10

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

41·38

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

DET -2.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

-1.5est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapChargers
  • +0.058EPA / play-0.070
  • 45.9%Success rate41.4%
  • +0.110EPA / dropback+0.018
  • -0.014EPA / rush-0.242
  • 11.2%Explosive rate6.9%
  • +1.34CPOE-1.84
  • 42.4%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 65.2%Red-zone TD rate54.8%
  • 2.29Points / drive1.75
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 4–3 since 1999

DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. LAC are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2019 · W2LAC @ DET10–13DET
2015 · W1DET @ SD28–33CHARGERS
2011 · W16SD @ DET10–38DET
2007 · W15DET @ SD14–51CHARGERS
2003 · W14SD @ DET14–7CHARGERS
1999 · W5SD @ DET20–10CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–LAC
LACQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
DETQ1 13:32776Field goal3–0
LACQ1 10:09745Field goal3–3
DETQ1 6:54659Touchdown10–3
LACQ1 4:1822Turnover10–3
DETQ1 3:451232Turnover on downs10–3
LACQ2 13:0939Punt10–3
DETQ2 12:17960Touchdown17–3
LACQ2 7:301075Touchdown17–10
DETQ2 3:21175Touchdown24–10
LACQ2 3:071075Touchdown24–17
DETQ2 0:2315End of half24–17
DETQ3 15:00823Punt24–17
LACQ3 12:271177Touchdown24–24
DETQ3 7:59775Touchdown31–24
LACQ3 4:311966Touchdown31–31
DETQ4 11:30775Touchdown38–31
LACQ4 7:30768Touchdown38–38
DETQ4 3:34555Field goal41–38

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff23/3333320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery121169.71
Jahmyr Gibbs14775.52
Amon-Ra St. Brown294.50
Jared Goff3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown891561
Kalif Raymond24460
Sam LaPorta45400
Jahmyr Gibbs35350
Brock Wright23231
Jameson Williams22180
Josh Reynolds24150

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert27/4032341

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler19673.51
Joshua Kelley5163.20
Justin Herbert4153.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen11141752
Austin Ekeler47480
Jalen Guyton46411
Quentin Johnston44341
Donald Parham22180
Derius Davis2270
Gerald Everett0200
Stone Smartt0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.1%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.61
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin-1.47