Closing spread
DET -2.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
-1.5est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.058EPA / play-0.070
- 45.9%Success rate41.4%
- +0.110EPA / dropback+0.018
- -0.014EPA / rush-0.242
- 11.2%Explosive rate6.9%
- +1.34CPOE-1.84
- 42.4%Third-down rate38.3%
- 65.2%Red-zone TD rate54.8%
- 2.29Points / drive1.75
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 4–3 since 1999
DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. LAC are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 23/33 | 333 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 12 | 116 | 9.7 | 1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 14 | 77 | 5.5 | 2 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 8 | 9 | 156 | 1 |
| Kalif Raymond | 2 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Sam LaPorta | 4 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 3 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Brock Wright | 2 | 3 | 23 | 1 |
| Jameson Williams | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 27/40 | 323 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 19 | 67 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Joshua Kelley | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 11 | 14 | 175 | 2 |
| Austin Ekeler | 4 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| Jalen Guyton | 4 | 6 | 41 | 1 |
| Quentin Johnston | 4 | 4 | 34 | 1 |
| Donald Parham | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Derius Davis | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Stone Smartt | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.1%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.61
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-1.47