Closing spread
DET -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
DET perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 4–3 since 1999
DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. DET are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 26/46 | 208 | 1 | 0 |
| Bill Schroeder | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Bryson | 10 | 28 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Olandis Gary | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Joey Harrington | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
7.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.4%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.94
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+0.86
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.