Closing spread
DET -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
DET perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 4–3 since 1999
DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. DET are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–DET |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 11 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DET | Q1 11:39 | 2 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DET | Q1 10:51 | 2 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DET | Q1 10:11 | 1 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DET | Q1 9:33 | 1 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 9:02 | 9 | 70 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| DET | Q1 4:14 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q1 2:43 | 13 | 72 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| DET | Q2 10:57 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q2 8:56 | 5 | 45 | Punt | 7–0 |
| DET | Q2 5:17 | 4 | 21 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q2 2:56 | 3 | 77 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| DET | Q2 1:54 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 14–0 |
| LAC | Q2 1:14 | 2 | 30 | Turnover | 14–0 |
| DET | Q2 0:53 | 6 | 54 | End of half | 14–0 |
| DET | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 14–0 |
| LAC | Q3 13:05 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 14–0 |
| DET | Q3 11:53 | 7 | 26 | Punt | 14–0 |
| LAC | Q3 8:13 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 14–0 |
| DET | Q3 4:37 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 14–0 |
| LAC | Q3 1:38 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 14–0 |
| DET | Q4 13:55 | 12 | 78 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| LAC | Q4 7:22 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 14–7 |
| DET | Q4 4:23 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 14–7 |
| LAC | Q4 3:27 | 5 | 8 | Punt | 14–7 |
| DET | Q4 1:49 | 9 | 42 | Turnover on downs | 14–7 |
| LAC | Q4 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–7 |
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 26/46 | 208 | 1 | 0 |
| Bill Schroeder | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Bryson | 10 | 28 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Olandis Gary | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Joey Harrington | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
7.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.4%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.94
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+0.86
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.