2019 · Week 2

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Philip Rivers

10·13

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

LAC -1

Total

47

Model margin

-0.4est.

DET perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapLions
  • +0.036EPA / play-0.039
  • 47.3%Success rate41.5%
  • +0.118EPA / dropback+0.049
  • -0.118EPA / rush-0.193
  • 9.0%Explosive rate8.8%
  • +3.58CPOE-3.54
  • 45.5%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 57.1%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
  • 1.99Points / drive1.73
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 4–3 since 1999

DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. DET are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W10DET @ LAC41–38DET
2015 · W1DET @ SD28–33CHARGERS
2011 · W16SD @ DET10–38DET
2007 · W15DET @ SD14–51CHARGERS
2003 · W14SD @ DET14–7CHARGERS
1999 · W5SD @ DET20–10CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–DET
LACQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
DETQ1 13:4833Punt0–0
LACQ1 12:21968Touchdown7–0
DETQ1 7:57875Touchdown7–6
LACQ1 4:1031Punt7–6
DETQ1 1:49832Punt7–6
LACQ2 12:20416Punt7–6
DETQ2 10:40949Missed field goal7–6
LACQ2 5:5754Punt7–6
DETQ2 3:29729Punt7–6
LACQ2 1:20676Field goal10–6
DETQ3 15:00854Turnover10–6
LACQ3 11:33895Turnover10–6
DETQ3 8:2638Punt10–6
LACQ3 6:24742Missed field goal10–6
DETQ3 2:09210Turnover10–6
LACQ3 0:59762Missed field goal10–6
DETQ4 11:45869Touchdown10–13
LACQ4 7:211357Turnover10–13
DETQ4 1:03311End of half10–13

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers21/3629301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler17663.91
Justin Jackson7598.40
Philip Rivers11212.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen815980
Mike Williams35830
Austin Ekeler66670
Dontrelle Inman12280
Virgil Green1290
Justin Jackson1150
Travis Benjamin0200

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford22/3024522

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kerryon Johnson12413.40
Ty Johnson5306.00
Matthew Stafford4133.30
C.J. Anderson581.60
J.D. McKissic221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Golladay8101171
Kerryon Johnson23471
Marvin Jones56430
Jesse James34180
Logan Thomas1170
T.J. Hockenson1370
Ty Johnson2260
Danny Amendola0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.0%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.14
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.40