Closing spread
LAC -1
Total
47
Model margin
-0.4est.
DET perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Lions
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.036EPA / play-0.039
- 47.3%Success rate41.5%
- +0.118EPA / dropback+0.049
- -0.118EPA / rush-0.193
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.8%
- +3.58CPOE-3.54
- 45.5%Third-down rate41.4%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
- 1.99Points / drive1.73
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 4–3 since 1999
DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. DET are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 21/36 | 293 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 17 | 66 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Justin Jackson | 7 | 59 | 8.4 | 0 |
| Philip Rivers | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 8 | 15 | 98 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 3 | 5 | 83 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 6 | 6 | 67 | 0 |
| Dontrelle Inman | 1 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 22/30 | 245 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerryon Johnson | 12 | 41 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 5 | 30 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Golladay | 8 | 10 | 117 | 1 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 2 | 3 | 47 | 1 |
| Marvin Jones | 5 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.0%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.14
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.40