Closing spread
GB -3
Total
37.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
SD perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
GB lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 51.1 points. SD are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 12/22 | 173 | 3 | 1 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 0/3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorsey Levens | 21 | 77 | 3.7 | 1 |
| De'Mond Parker | 4 | 35 | 8.8 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Basil Mitchell | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Freeman | 5 | 9 | 82 | 1 |
| Bill Schroeder | 4 | 6 | 45 | 1 |
| Dorsey Levens | 1 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Tyrone Davis | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Corey Bradford | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Desmond Howard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeff Thomason | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.2%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.65
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.91
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.