Closing spread
GB -5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+0.3est.
SD perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Chargers
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
GB lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 51.1 points. SD are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 23/33 | 278 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 19 | 75 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Tony Fisher | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Najeh Davenport | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Doug Pederson | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
| Robert Ferguson | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
1.84%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.9%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.25
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.31
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.