Closing spread
GB -5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+0.3est.
SD perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Chargers
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
GB lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 51.1 points. SD are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | GB–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 60 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q1 10:59 | 9 | 35 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| GB | Q1 6:02 | 10 | 42 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LAC | Q1 2:01 | 10 | 57 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| GB | Q2 12:55 | 6 | 24 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| LAC | Q2 8:59 | 6 | 26 | Punt | 10–3 |
| GB | Q2 5:34 | 7 | 33 | Punt | 10–3 |
| LAC | Q2 1:50 | 5 | 51 | Turnover | 10–3 |
| GB | Q2 1:17 | 7 | 70 | Touchdown | 17–3 |
| LAC | Q2 0:33 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 17–3 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 71 | Field goal | 17–6 |
| GB | Q3 8:52 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 17–6 |
| LAC | Q3 7:46 | 5 | 6 | Turnover | 17–6 |
| GB | Q3 5:08 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 17–6 |
| LAC | Q3 4:46 | 10 | 53 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| GB | Q4 14:56 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 17–14 |
| LAC | Q4 13:04 | 2 | 72 | Touchdown | 17–21 |
| GB | Q4 12:10 | 2 | 42 | Touchdown | 24–21 |
| LAC | Q4 11:18 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 24–21 |
| GB | Q4 10:46 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 24–21 |
| LAC | Q4 8:51 | 1 | -19 | Turnover | 30–21 |
| GB | Q4 8:42 | 1 | 1 | Touchdown | 31–21 |
| LAC | Q4 8:37 | 5 | 0 | Punt | 31–21 |
| GB | Q4 7:13 | 7 | 80 | Touchdown | 38–21 |
| LAC | Q4 3:58 | 13 | 73 | Turnover on downs | 38–21 |
| GB | Q4 1:36 | 3 | -2 | End of half | 38–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 23/33 | 278 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 19 | 75 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Tony Fisher | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Najeh Davenport | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Doug Pederson | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
| Robert Ferguson | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
1.84%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.9%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.25
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.31
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.