Closing spread
SD -5.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+4.7est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
GB lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 51.1 points. GB are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 30 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 12:50 | 11 | 62 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| GB | Q1 7:07 | 9 | 62 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| LAC | Q1 2:40 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–3 |
| GB | Q1 0:32 | 8 | 44 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| LAC | Q2 11:53 | 8 | 41 | Punt | 7–10 |
| GB | Q2 6:44 | 10 | 79 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| LAC | Q2 2:48 | 9 | 70 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| GB | Q2 0:32 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 14–17 |
| LAC | Q2 0:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–17 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 80 | Touchdown | 21–17 |
| GB | Q3 9:02 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 21–17 |
| LAC | Q3 6:52 | 5 | 24 | Punt | 21–17 |
| GB | Q3 4:09 | 7 | 44 | Punt | 21–17 |
| LAC | Q4 14:52 | 5 | 4 | Punt | 21–17 |
| GB | Q4 11:38 | 14 | 79 | Turnover on downs | 21–17 |
| LAC | Q4 5:48 | 6 | 27 | Punt | 21–17 |
| GB | Q4 2:18 | 2 | 57 | Touchdown | 21–24 |
| LAC | Q4 2:03 | 4 | 11 | Turnover | 21–24 |
| GB | Q4 1:12 | 2 | 2 | Touchdown | 21–31 |
| LAC | Q4 0:59 | 4 | 43 | Field goal | 24–31 |
| GB | Q4 0:20 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 28/45 | 369 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jackson | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Ryan Grant | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| DeShawn Wynn | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
1.57%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.4%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.08
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.65
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.