Closing spread
GB -5.5
Total
50.5
Model margin
-0.4est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
GB lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 51.1 points. SD are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 21/26 | 247 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Starks | 13 | 66 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 8 | 52 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordy Nelson | 5 | 6 | 105 | 1 |
| Greg Jennings | 6 | 8 | 46 | 1 |
| Jermichael Finley | 5 | 7 | 44 | 1 |
| James Jones | 1 | 1 | 21 | 1 |
| Donald Driver | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| James Starks | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
1.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.9%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.29
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.64
- Expected margin-0.44
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.