Closing spread
GB -5.5
Total
50.5
Model margin
-0.4est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Packers
- OutChad CliftonTKnee· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- OutMike NealDEKnee· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- ProbableClay MatthewsLBQuadricep· Limited
- ProbableJosh SittonGKnee· Limited
- ProbableFrank ZomboLBKnee· Full
- ProbableJamari LattimoreLBShoulder· Full
- ProbableMorgan BurnettSHand· Full
- ProbableSam ShieldsCBConcussion· Full
Chargers
- OutKris DielmanGConcussion· DNP
- OutLuis CastilloDETibia· DNP
- DoubtfulShaun PhillipsLBFoot· DNP
- QuestionableMalcom FloydWRHip· DNP
- QuestionableNa'il DiggsLBKnee· DNP
- QuestionableRyan MathewsRBGroin· DNP
- ProbableAntonio GatesTENot Injury Related· Full
- ProbableCurtis BrinkleyRBConcussion· Full
- ProbableMike TolbertRBHamstring· Full
- ProbableTyronne GreenGHand· Full
- ProbableVincent JacksonWRHamstring· Full
Win probability
- Chargers
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
GB lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 51.1 points. SD are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | GB–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| GB | Q1 10:32 | 9 | 47 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q1 5:40 | 3 | 3 | Opp touchdown | 14–7 |
| LAC | Q1 4:33 | 5 | 21 | Opp touchdown | 21–7 |
| LAC | Q1 1:52 | 6 | 66 | Touchdown | 21–14 |
| GB | Q2 14:08 | 8 | 37 | Turnover on downs | 21–14 |
| LAC | Q2 10:07 | 10 | 30 | Field goal | 21–17 |
| GB | Q2 5:48 | 12 | 79 | Touchdown | 28–17 |
| LAC | Q2 0:18 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 28–17 |
| GB | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 46 | Field goal | 31–17 |
| LAC | Q3 8:25 | 14 | 97 | Touchdown | 31–24 |
| GB | Q3 1:58 | 7 | 73 | Touchdown | 38–24 |
| LAC | Q4 13:00 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 38–24 |
| GB | Q4 11:31 | 3 | 68 | Touchdown | 45–24 |
| LAC | Q4 10:27 | 7 | 80 | Touchdown | 45–31 |
| GB | Q4 7:32 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 45–31 |
| LAC | Q4 7:30 | 3 | 55 | Touchdown | 45–38 |
| GB | Q4 6:25 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 45–38 |
| LAC | Q4 4:48 | 7 | 11 | Punt | 45–38 |
| GB | Q4 2:59 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 45–38 |
| LAC | Q4 1:05 | 7 | 19 | Turnover | 45–38 |
| GB | Q4 0:14 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 45–38 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 21/26 | 247 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Starks | 13 | 66 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 8 | 52 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordy Nelson | 5 | 6 | 105 | 1 |
| Greg Jennings | 6 | 8 | 46 | 1 |
| Jermichael Finley | 5 | 7 | 44 | 1 |
| James Jones | 1 | 1 | 21 | 1 |
| Donald Driver | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| James Starks | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
1.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.9%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.29
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.64
- Expected margin-0.44
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.