Closing spread
GB -4
Total
50
Model margin
+0.0est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.059EPA / play+0.036
- 43.9%Success rate47.3%
- +0.124EPA / dropback+0.118
- -0.062EPA / rush-0.118
- 8.5%Explosive rate9.0%
- +0.96CPOE+3.58
- 37.9%Third-down rate45.5%
- 69.9%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 2.12Points / drive1.99
- 1.1%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 51.1 points. LAC are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 23/35 | 161 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 8 | 30 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Lazard | 3 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 7 | 11 | 41 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 6 | 6 | 39 | 1 |
| Geronimo Allison | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 4 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Jake Kumerow | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 21/28 | 294 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 20 | 80 | 4.0 | 2 |
| Austin Ekeler | 12 | 70 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Philip Rivers | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 3 | 3 | 111 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 7 | 10 | 84 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 4 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.1%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.72
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.02