2019 · Week 9

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

11·26

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Philip Rivers

StubHub Center · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

GB -4

Total

50

Model margin

+0.0est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

2.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapChargers
  • +0.059EPA / play+0.036
  • 43.9%Success rate47.3%
  • +0.124EPA / dropback+0.118
  • -0.062EPA / rush-0.118
  • 8.5%Explosive rate9.0%
  • +0.96CPOE+3.58
  • 37.9%Third-down rate45.5%
  • 69.9%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
  • 2.12Points / drive1.99
  • 1.1%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 6–1 since 1999

Meetings average 51.1 points. LAC are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W11LAC @ GB20–23GB
2015 · W6SD @ GB20–27GB
2011 · W9GB @ SD45–38GB
2007 · W3SD @ GB24–31GB
2003 · W15GB @ SD38–21GB
1999 · W7GB @ SD31–3GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–LAC
LACQ1 15:001484Field goal0–3
GBQ1 6:563-2Punt0–3
LACQ1 4:13652Field goal0–6
GBQ1 1:04615Punt0–6
LACQ2 12:37528Punt0–6
GBQ2 9:47937Punt0–6
LACQ2 4:211386Field goal0–9
GBQ3 15:0032Punt0–9
LACQ3 13:17752Field goal0–12
GBQ3 9:4158Punt0–12
LACQ3 7:16627Touchdown0–19
GBQ3 3:56724Field goal3–19
LACQ3 0:461075Touchdown3–26
GBQ4 10:32975Touchdown11–26
LACQ4 6:21839Missed field goal11–26
GBQ4 2:10725Turnover on downs11–26
LACQ4 1:0600End of half11–26

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers23/3516110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones8303.80
Jamaal Williams2105.00
Aaron Rodgers155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Lazard34440
Davante Adams711410
Jamaal Williams66391
Geronimo Allison22210
Jimmy Graham44170
Jake Kumerow0200
Marquez Valdes-Scantling0200
Aaron Jones13-10

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers21/2829400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Melvin Gordon20804.02
Austin Ekeler12705.80
Justin Jackson273.50
Mike Williams122.00
Philip Rivers300.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Williams331110
Hunter Henry710840
Keenan Allen34400
Melvin Gordon34290
Austin Ekeler44230
Justin Jackson1170

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -42.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.1%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.72
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.02