2023 · Week 11

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

20·23

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 45°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

LAC -3

Total

44

Model margin

+5.3est.

GB perspective

Push chance

6.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapPackers
  • -0.070EPA / play+0.075
  • 41.4%Success rate45.1%
  • +0.018EPA / dropback+0.155
  • -0.242EPA / rush-0.054
  • 6.9%Explosive rate9.2%
  • -1.84CPOE+1.07
  • 38.3%Third-down rate47.4%
  • 54.8%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
  • 1.75Points / drive2.16
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 6–1 since 1999

Meetings average 51.1 points. GB are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2019 · W9GB @ LAC11–26CHARGERS
2015 · W6SD @ GB20–27GB
2011 · W9GB @ SD45–38GB
2007 · W3SD @ GB24–31GB
2003 · W15GB @ SD38–21GB
1999 · W7GB @ SD31–3GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–GB
GBQ1 15:00741Turnover on downs0–0
LACQ1 11:0346Turnover on downs0–0
GBQ1 9:3633Punt0–0
LACQ1 8:001179Field goal3–0
GBQ1 1:22669Touchdown3–7
LACQ2 14:53675Touchdown10–7
GBQ2 12:16945Missed field goal10–7
LACQ2 7:1635Punt10–7
GBQ2 5:511576Field goal10–10
LACQ2 0:0700End of half10–10
LACQ3 15:00971Field goal13–10
GBQ3 10:441026Punt13–10
LACQ3 4:0739Punt13–10
GBQ3 2:25570Touchdown13–16
LACQ3 0:04572Turnover13–16
GBQ4 12:44611Punt13–16
LACQ4 11:001278Touchdown20–16
GBQ4 5:24751Touchdown20–23
LACQ4 2:333-10Punt20–23
GBQ4 1:4736Punt20–23
LACQ4 1:27710Turnover on downs20–23
GBQ4 0:1900End of half20–23

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert21/3626020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Herbert8739.10
Austin Ekeler10646.40
Joshua Kelley6132.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen10161161
Donald Parham46570
Stone Smartt13511
Quentin Johnston26210
Alex Erickson11120
Austin Ekeler2360
Derius Davis11-30

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love27/4032220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jayden Reed34615.31
AJ Dillon14292.10
Aaron Jones4143.50
Emanuel Wilson3124.00
Christian Watson111.00
Jordan Love300.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dontayvion Wicks35910
Romeo Doubs56531
Jayden Reed46460
AJ Dillon44320
Tucker Kraft22320
Luke Musgrave46280
Christian Watson24211
Emanuel Wilson1290
Malik Heath1170
Aaron Jones1230

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

6.34%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.3%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.65
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.35