Closing spread
LAC -3
Total
44
Model margin
+5.3est.
GB perspective
Push chance
6.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.070EPA / play+0.075
- 41.4%Success rate45.1%
- +0.018EPA / dropback+0.155
- -0.242EPA / rush-0.054
- 6.9%Explosive rate9.2%
- -1.84CPOE+1.07
- 38.3%Third-down rate47.4%
- 54.8%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 1.75Points / drive2.16
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 51.1 points. GB are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 21/36 | 260 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 8 | 73 | 9.1 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 10 | 64 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 10 | 16 | 116 | 1 |
| Donald Parham | 4 | 6 | 57 | 0 |
| Stone Smartt | 1 | 3 | 51 | 1 |
| Quentin Johnston | 2 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Derius Davis | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 27/40 | 322 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Reed | 3 | 46 | 15.3 | 1 |
| AJ Dillon | 14 | 29 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Christian Watson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Jordan Love | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dontayvion Wicks | 3 | 5 | 91 | 0 |
| Romeo Doubs | 5 | 6 | 53 | 1 |
| Jayden Reed | 4 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Tucker Kraft | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Luke Musgrave | 4 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Christian Watson | 2 | 4 | 21 | 1 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Malik Heath | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
6.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.3%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.65
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.35