Closing spread
GB -10.5
Total
50
Model margin
+2.5est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
GB lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 51.1 points. GB are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 16/29 | 255 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Starks | 10 | 112 | 11.2 | 1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Janis | 2 | 4 | 79 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 2 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 2 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| James Jones | 2 | 5 | 30 | 1 |
| Justin Perillo | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| James Starks | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
1.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.9%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.01
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.55
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.