Closing spread
GB -10.5
Total
50
Model margin
+2.5est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chargers
- OutChris WattCGroin· DNP
- OutCraig MagerCBHamstring· DNP
- OutDarius PhilonDEHip· DNP
- OutKing DunlapTConcussion· DNP
- OutTourek WilliamsLBFoot· DNP
- DoubtfulSteve JohnsonWRHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableChris HairstonTAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableD.J. FlukerGAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableManti Te'oLBAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableOrlando FranklinGAnkle· Limited
- ProbableKyle EmanuelLBShoulder· Full
Packers
- DoubtfulB.J. RajiDTGroin· DNP
- DoubtfulNick PerryLBShoulder· DNP
- QuestionableDavante AdamsWRAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableLadarius GunterCBHeel· Limited
- QuestionableMorgan BurnettSCalf· Limited
- DNPDatone JonesDENot Injury Related
- ProbableBryan BulagaTKnee· Limited
- ProbableJames JonesWRHamstring· Limited
- ProbableT.J. LangGKnee· Limited
- ProbableDemetri GoodsonCBHamstring· Full
- ProbableJake RyanLBHamstring· Full
- ProbableRandall CobbWRShoulder· Full
Win probability
- Packers
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
GB lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 51.1 points. GB are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 12:23 | 9 | 92 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 8:38 | 13 | 62 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| GB | Q1 3:17 | 5 | 66 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| LAC | Q1 1:51 | 13 | 67 | Turnover on downs | 3–14 |
| GB | Q2 10:46 | 10 | 78 | Field goal | 3–17 |
| LAC | Q2 6:48 | 2 | 1 | Turnover | 3–17 |
| GB | Q2 6:11 | 3 | -11 | Punt | 3–17 |
| LAC | Q2 4:47 | 13 | 101 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| GB | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 10–17 |
| LAC | Q3 13:35 | 9 | 93 | Touchdown | 17–17 |
| GB | Q3 9:24 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 17–17 |
| LAC | Q3 8:11 | 11 | 30 | Punt | 17–17 |
| GB | Q3 3:34 | 7 | 69 | Touchdown | 17–24 |
| LAC | Q3 0:46 | 9 | 63 | Field goal | 20–24 |
| GB | Q4 11:10 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 20–24 |
| LAC | Q4 9:00 | 6 | 34 | Punt | 20–24 |
| GB | Q4 6:14 | 9 | 65 | Field goal | 20–27 |
| LAC | Q4 2:37 | 11 | 77 | Turnover on downs | 20–27 |
| GB | Q4 0:15 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 16/29 | 255 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Starks | 10 | 112 | 11.2 | 1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Janis | 2 | 4 | 79 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 2 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 2 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| James Jones | 2 | 5 | 30 | 1 |
| Justin Perillo | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| James Starks | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
1.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.9%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.01
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.55
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.