1999 · Week 8

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Troy Aikman

24·34

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

RCA Dome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

IND -3

Total

46

Model margin

+1.9est.

IND perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapColts
  • -0.013EPA / play+0.072
  • 39.6%Success rate41.4%
  • +0.043EPA / dropback+0.193
  • -0.079EPA / rush-0.106
  • 9.3%Explosive rate9.5%
  • 34.8%Third-down rate39.4%
  • 51.1%Red-zone TD rate52.1%
  • 1.25Points / drive1.88
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.8%
  • -0.080EPA / play allowed-0.036

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 47.7 points. IND are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W13IND @ DAL19–54DAL
2018 · W15DAL @ IND0–23IND
2014 · W16IND @ DAL7–42DAL
2010 · W13DAL @ IND38–35DAL
2006 · W11IND @ DAL14–21DAL
2002 · W11DAL @ IND3–20IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–IND
INDQ1 15:0030Punt6–0
DALQ1 13:0212Touchdown7–0
INDQ1 12:58515Punt7–0
DALQ1 9:39622Field goal10–0
INDQ1 6:34756Field goal10–3
DALQ1 2:221360Touchdown17–3
INDQ2 10:26610Punt17–3
DALQ2 8:3839Punt17–3
INDQ2 6:061064Field goal17–6
DALQ2 1:15211End of half17–6
DALQ3 15:0039Punt17–6
INDQ3 12:41889Touchdown17–14
DALQ3 8:351-7Turnover17–20
INDQ3 8:1211Touchdown17–21
DALQ3 8:01875Touchdown24–21
INDQ3 3:26980Touchdown24–28
DALQ4 14:553-8Punt24–28
INDQ4 13:22625Field goal24–31
DALQ4 10:433-1Punt24–31
INDQ4 9:19871Field goal24–34
DALQ4 4:361137Turnover on downs24–34
INDQ4 1:4838Punt24–34
DALQ4 0:35323End of half24–34

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Troy Aikman19/2415900
Jason Garrett0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Emmitt Smith22934.22
Chris Warren393.01
Troy Aikman111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ernie Mills44370
Raghib Ismail46310
David LaFleur23310
Jeff Ogden23250
Chris Warren33200
Emmitt Smith3360
Alvin Harper0100
Jason Tucker0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning22/3431310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Edgerrin James271174.31
Terrence Wilkins122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Edgerrin James712920
Marvin Harrison611851
Terrence Wilkins57600
Jerome Pathon11380
Ken Dilger22220
Marcus Pollard11160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.2%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.67
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.89