Closing spread
IND -3
Total
46
Model margin
+1.9est.
IND perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.013EPA / play+0.072
- 39.6%Success rate41.4%
- +0.043EPA / dropback+0.193
- -0.079EPA / rush-0.106
- 9.3%Explosive rate9.5%
- 34.8%Third-down rate39.4%
- 51.1%Red-zone TD rate52.1%
- 1.25Points / drive1.88
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.080EPA / play allowed-0.036
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 47.7 points. IND are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Aikman | 19/24 | 159 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Garrett | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 22 | 93 | 4.2 | 2 |
| Chris Warren | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Troy Aikman | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ernie Mills | 4 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Raghib Ismail | 4 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| David LaFleur | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Jeff Ogden | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Chris Warren | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Alvin Harper | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Tucker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 22/34 | 313 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 27 | 117 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Terrence Wilkins | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 7 | 12 | 92 | 0 |
| Marvin Harrison | 6 | 11 | 85 | 1 |
| Terrence Wilkins | 5 | 7 | 60 | 0 |
| Jerome Pathon | 1 | 1 | 38 | 0 |
| Ken Dilger | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Marcus Pollard | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.2%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.67
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.89