Closing spread
IND -6.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+5.0est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.190EPA / play+0.016
- 37.2%Success rate44.3%
- -0.193EPA / dropback+0.112
- -0.185EPA / rush-0.138
- 9.2%Explosive rate7.7%
- 23.8%Third-down rate44.5%
- 57.0%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
- 0.79Points / drive1.70
- 3.3%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.059EPA / play allowed-0.065
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 47.7 points. IND are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DAL–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 13:21 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 12:24 | 6 | 43 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 8:58 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 7:14 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 5:21 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 3:50 | 8 | 32 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q2 14:34 | 5 | 26 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q2 11:43 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q2 9:47 | 4 | 32 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| IND | Q2 7:41 | 10 | 53 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| DAL | Q2 1:54 | 8 | 46 | Missed field goal | 3–3 |
| DAL | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 3–3 |
| IND | Q3 13:09 | 9 | 74 | Missed field goal | 3–3 |
| DAL | Q3 7:57 | 7 | 29 | Punt | 3–3 |
| IND | Q3 4:59 | 10 | 72 | Field goal | 3–6 |
| DAL | Q4 13:06 | 6 | 34 | Punt | 3–6 |
| IND | Q4 10:06 | 12 | 80 | Touchdown | 3–13 |
| DAL | Q4 4:18 | 2 | -14 | Turnover | 3–13 |
| IND | Q4 4:00 | 4 | 8 | Touchdown | 3–20 |
| DAL | Q4 2:24 | 5 | 1 | Turnover | 3–20 |
| IND | Q4 1:37 | 1 | -6 | End of half | 3–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Hutchinson | 11/23 | 131 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Hambrick | 7 | 42 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 8 | 22 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Antonio Bryant | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Chad Hutchinson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Galloway | 4 | 8 | 49 | 0 |
| Antonio Bryant | 3 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 1 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| James Whalen | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Troy Hambrick | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 29/38 | 252 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 24 | 106 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 0 |
| James Mungro | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison | 14 | 18 | 138 | 2 |
| Troy Walters | 7 | 8 | 91 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 2 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
| Marcus Pollard | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 4 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
4.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.4%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.01
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+5.01