2010 · Week 13

Final / OT

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Jon Kitna

38·35

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -5.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+3.2est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapColts
  • -0.002EPA / play+0.095
  • 43.2%Success rate47.2%
  • +0.048EPA / dropback+0.182
  • -0.085EPA / rush-0.067
  • 9.1%Explosive rate6.7%
  • +2.25CPOE+3.98
  • 40.4%Third-down rate44.8%
  • 65.7%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
  • 1.67Points / drive2.12
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 47.7 points. IND are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W13IND @ DAL19–54DAL
2018 · W15DAL @ IND0–23IND
2014 · W16IND @ DAL7–42DAL
2006 · W11IND @ DAL14–21DAL
2002 · W11DAL @ IND3–20IND
1999 · W8DAL @ IND24–34IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–IND
DALQ1 15:00980Touchdown7–0
INDQ1 10:15518Turnover7–0
DALQ1 8:181172Field goal10–0
INDQ1 1:38518Opp touchdown17–0
INDQ2 14:121681Touchdown17–7
DALQ2 5:5738Punt17–7
INDQ2 4:2131Punt17–7
DALQ2 3:10958Missed field goal17–7
INDQ2 0:0200End of half17–7
INDQ3 15:00480Touchdown17–14
DALQ3 13:53419Punt17–14
INDQ3 11:2539Punt17–14
DALQ3 9:32836Field goal20–14
INDQ3 5:4730Opp touchdown27–14
INDQ3 4:531195Touchdown27–21
DALQ4 14:563-4Opp touchdown27–28
DALQ4 12:561883Touchdown35–28
INDQ4 2:381081Touchdown35–35
DALQ4 0:2900End of half35–35
INDOT417Punt35–35
DALOT31Punt35–35
INDOT36Turnover35–35
DALOT516Field goal38–35

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jon Kitna18/2616710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tashard Choice191005.31
Felix Jones22833.80
Jon Kitna4287.00
Miles Austin166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Miles Austin48470
Jason Witten55421
Roy Williams22320
Martellus Bennett33240
Dez Bryant13140
Felix Jones3380
Sam Hurd0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning36/4836524

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javarris James6183.02
Pierre Garcon11111.00
Mike Hart581.60
Donald Brown441.00
Peyton Manning1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Reggie Wayne14202001
Pierre Garcon88561
Jacob Tamme47470
Blair White46320
Javarris James23170
Brody Eldridge1180
Donald Brown1140
Mike Hart2210

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.9%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

3.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.6%

Expected total

46.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.92
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+3.17