Closing spread
IND -5.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.002EPA / play+0.095
- 43.2%Success rate47.2%
- +0.048EPA / dropback+0.182
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.067
- 9.1%Explosive rate6.7%
- +2.25CPOE+3.98
- 40.4%Third-down rate44.8%
- 65.7%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
- 1.67Points / drive2.12
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 47.7 points. IND are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 18/26 | 167 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tashard Choice | 19 | 100 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Felix Jones | 22 | 83 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Austin | 4 | 8 | 47 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 5 | 5 | 42 | 1 |
| Roy Williams | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Sam Hurd | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 36/48 | 365 | 2 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javarris James | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 2 |
| Pierre Garcon | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Mike Hart | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Wayne | 14 | 20 | 200 | 1 |
| Pierre Garcon | 8 | 8 | 56 | 1 |
| Jacob Tamme | 4 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| Blair White | 4 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Javarris James | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Brody Eldridge | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Mike Hart | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
3.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.6%
Expected total
46.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.92
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+3.17