2018 · Week 15

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

0·23

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -3

Total

47

Model margin

+2.7est.

IND perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapColts
  • +0.009EPA / play+0.059
  • 43.9%Success rate48.0%
  • +0.051EPA / dropback+0.141
  • -0.060EPA / rush-0.097
  • 8.9%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +1.03CPOE+0.63
  • 41.3%Third-down rate50.5%
  • 57.5%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
  • 1.93Points / drive2.25
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 47.7 points. IND are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W13IND @ DAL19–54DAL
2014 · W16IND @ DAL7–42DAL
2010 · W13DAL @ IND38–35DAL
2006 · W11IND @ DAL14–21DAL
2002 · W11DAL @ IND3–20IND
1999 · W8DAL @ IND24–34IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–IND
DALQ1 15:00945Missed field goal0–0
INDQ1 9:55844Touchdown0–7
DALQ1 6:091570Turnover on downs0–7
INDQ2 14:091362Punt0–7
DALQ2 9:061564Punt0–7
INDQ2 1:531164Field goal0–10
INDQ3 15:00875Touchdown0–17
DALQ3 11:23834Punt0–17
INDQ3 7:45963Field goal0–20
DALQ3 1:36826Turnover on downs0–20
INDQ4 14:561345Field goal0–23
DALQ4 6:57944Turnover on downs0–23
INDQ4 4:162-6Turnover0–23
DALQ4 4:0459Turnover0–23
INDQ4 3:09426End of half0–23

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott24/3920601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott18874.80
Rod Smith3144.70
Amari Cooper11111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Blake Jarwin47450
Cole Beasley47420
Ezekiel Elliott78410
Amari Cooper47320
Dalton Schultz34230
Noah Brown12140
Allen Hurns1290
Jamize Olawale0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck16/2719200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marlon Mack271395.12
Andrew Luck6203.30
Nyheim Hines6193.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton58850
Nyheim Hines46450
Ryan Grant22160
Zach Pascal13120
Chester Rogers11100
Marlon Mack11100
Eric Ebron1380
Jordan Wilkins1160
Dontrelle Inman0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.4%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.00
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.74