Closing spread
IND -3
Total
47
Model margin
+2.7est.
IND perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.009EPA / play+0.059
- 43.9%Success rate48.0%
- +0.051EPA / dropback+0.141
- -0.060EPA / rush-0.097
- 8.9%Explosive rate8.0%
- +1.03CPOE+0.63
- 41.3%Third-down rate50.5%
- 57.5%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
- 1.93Points / drive2.25
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 47.7 points. IND are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 24/39 | 206 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 18 | 87 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Jarwin | 4 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 4 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 7 | 8 | 41 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 4 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Jamize Olawale | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 16/27 | 192 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Mack | 27 | 139 | 5.1 | 2 |
| Andrew Luck | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 5 | 8 | 85 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 4 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Dontrelle Inman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.4%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.00
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.74