Closing spread
IND -1
Total
49
Model margin
+1.7est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.153EPA / play+0.072
- 51.4%Success rate45.5%
- +0.294EPA / dropback+0.143
- -0.043EPA / rush-0.024
- 8.8%Explosive rate9.8%
- +4.70CPOE+3.73
- 56.7%Third-down rate49.3%
- 70.9%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
- 2.54Points / drive2.18
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 47.7 points. DAL are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–DAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 17 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 11:47 | 2 | -1 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 11:04 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 9:37 | 10 | 38 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 4:13 | 4 | 21 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 2:12 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 0:45 | 6 | 24 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| IND | Q2 11:12 | 8 | 43 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q2 7:56 | 7 | 43 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q2 3:03 | 13 | 88 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| DAL | Q2 0:10 | 1 | 28 | Missed field goal | 7–0 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Opp touchdown | 7–7 |
| IND | Q3 14:09 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 7–7 |
| DAL | Q3 11:39 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 7–7 |
| IND | Q3 9:37 | 10 | 65 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| DAL | Q3 5:09 | 15 | 63 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| IND | Q4 11:36 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 14–14 |
| DAL | Q4 9:51 | 7 | 80 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| IND | Q4 6:00 | 7 | 61 | Turnover on downs | 14–21 |
| DAL | Q4 2:59 | 5 | 52 | End of half | 14–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 20/39 | 254 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 13 | 50 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 9 | 30 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 19/23 | 226 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 22 | 79 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 9 | 35 | 3.9 | 2 |
| Tony Romo | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.7%
Expected total
48.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.83
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.73