2014 · Week 16

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

7·42

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -3.5

Total

53

Model margin

+4.4est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapCowboys
  • +0.029EPA / play+0.117
  • 45.9%Success rate46.6%
  • +0.147EPA / dropback+0.286
  • -0.221EPA / rush-0.068
  • 9.7%Explosive rate10.8%
  • +1.10CPOE+5.68
  • 42.2%Third-down rate47.6%
  • 62.3%Red-zone TD rate70.8%
  • 2.01Points / drive2.36
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 47.7 points. DAL are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W13IND @ DAL19–54DAL
2018 · W15DAL @ IND0–23IND
2010 · W13DAL @ IND38–35DAL
2006 · W11IND @ DAL14–21DAL
2002 · W11DAL @ IND3–20IND
1999 · W8DAL @ IND24–34IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–DAL
DALQ1 15:001670Touchdown0–7
INDQ1 6:364-1Turnover on downs0–13
DALQ1 4:30119Touchdown0–14
INDQ1 4:2337Punt0–14
DALQ1 2:58775Touchdown0–21
INDQ2 14:1137Punt0–21
DALQ2 13:031067Touchdown0–28
INDQ2 6:32733Punt0–28
DALQ2 3:0131Punt0–28
INDQ2 1:461058Turnover0–28
INDQ3 15:0024Turnover0–28
DALQ3 14:323-15Missed field goal0–28
INDQ3 12:2934Punt0–28
DALQ3 10:581075Touchdown0–35
INDQ3 4:41818Turnover0–35
DALQ3 1:09729Turnover0–35
INDQ4 12:4232Punt0–35
DALQ4 11:39347Touchdown0–42
INDQ4 10:121136Touchdown7–42
DALQ4 5:2439Punt7–42
INDQ4 3:13961End of half7–42

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck15/2112610
Andrew Luck15/2210902

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dan Herron730.40
Trent Richardson210.50
Zurlon Tipton1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hakeem Nicks911720
Dan Herron34370
Coby Fleener47360
Reggie Wayne35230
Jack Doyle23230
Zurlon Tipton44231
Josh Cribbs1180
Trent Richardson2280
Donte Moncrief2350
Dwayne Allen0300

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo18/2021840
Brandon Weeden1/14310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray22582.61
Joseph Randle13372.80
Tony Romo3289.30
Lance Dunbar242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jason Witten77901
Dez Bryant55731
Terrance Williams22522
Cole Beasley23291
Lance Dunbar22100
Joseph Randle1170
Dwayne Harris0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.8%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.90
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.39