Closing spread
DAL -3.5
Total
53
Model margin
+4.4est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.029EPA / play+0.117
- 45.9%Success rate46.6%
- +0.147EPA / dropback+0.286
- -0.221EPA / rush-0.068
- 9.7%Explosive rate10.8%
- +1.10CPOE+5.68
- 42.2%Third-down rate47.6%
- 62.3%Red-zone TD rate70.8%
- 2.01Points / drive2.36
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 47.7 points. DAL are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 15/21 | 126 | 1 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 15/22 | 109 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Herron | 7 | 3 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Zurlon Tipton | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hakeem Nicks | 9 | 11 | 72 | 0 |
| Dan Herron | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 4 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Zurlon Tipton | 4 | 4 | 23 | 1 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 18/20 | 218 | 4 | 0 |
| Brandon Weeden | 1/1 | 43 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 22 | 58 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Joseph Randle | 13 | 37 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 3 | 28 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Lance Dunbar | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Witten | 7 | 7 | 90 | 1 |
| Dez Bryant | 5 | 5 | 73 | 1 |
| Terrance Williams | 2 | 2 | 52 | 2 |
| Cole Beasley | 2 | 3 | 29 | 1 |
| Lance Dunbar | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Joseph Randle | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Dwayne Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.8%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.90
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.39