2022 · Week 13

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Matt Ryan

19·54

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -11

Total

44.5

Model margin

+5.6est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

1.6%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapCowboys
  • -0.154EPA / play+0.031
  • 40.3%Success rate45.2%
  • -0.139EPA / dropback+0.082
  • -0.181EPA / rush-0.031
  • 7.4%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -1.42CPOE-1.95
  • 33.3%Third-down rate46.2%
  • 45.5%Red-zone TD rate71.3%
  • 1.33Points / drive2.26
  • 2.9%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 47.7 points. DAL are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2018 · W15DAL @ IND0–23IND
2014 · W16IND @ DAL7–42DAL
2010 · W13DAL @ IND38–35DAL
2006 · W11IND @ DAL14–21DAL
2002 · W11DAL @ IND3–20IND
1999 · W8DAL @ IND24–34IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–DAL
DALQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
INDQ1 13:31520Field goal3–0
DALQ1 10:491273Touchdown3–7
INDQ1 4:50579Touchdown10–7
DALQ1 2:37624Punt10–7
INDQ2 14:513-4Punt10–7
DALQ2 13:14656Touchdown10–14
INDQ2 10:16930Punt10–14
DALQ2 4:37623Turnover10–14
INDQ2 2:4433Field goal13–14
DALQ2 1:4730Punt13–14
INDQ2 1:19513Turnover13–14
DALQ2 0:55526Touchdown13–21
INDQ2 0:1300End of half13–21
INDQ3 15:0031Punt13–21
DALQ3 13:2947Punt13–21
INDQ3 11:431595Touchdown19–21
DALQ3 3:431060Touchdown19–28
INDQ4 13:5216Opp touchdown19–34
INDQ4 13:34718Turnover19–34
DALQ4 11:03353Touchdown19–40
INDQ4 9:46427Turnover19–40
DALQ4 9:04628Touchdown19–47
INDQ4 6:0666Turnover19–47
DALQ4 3:59329Touchdown19–54
INDQ4 2:25318End of half19–54

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan21/3723323

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor21823.90
Zack Moss3186.00
Deon Jackson263.00
Parris Campbell122.00
Matt Ryan3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alec Pierce48861
Parris Campbell45430
Jelani Woods24280
Jonathan Taylor34210
Kylen Granson46190
Michael Pittman24160
Ashton Dulin12141
Mo Alie-Cox1160
Deon Jackson0100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott20/3017031

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard12917.62
Ezekiel Elliott17774.51
Malik Davis3299.71
CeeDee Lamb22311.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb57711
Dalton Schultz26330
Michael Gallup47232
Noah Brown22150
Tony Pollard23150
Ezekiel Elliott33140
Jake Ferguson22-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +116.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

1.58%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.9%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.57
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.32
  • Expected margin+5.59