Closing spread
DAL -11
Total
44.5
Model margin
+5.6est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.154EPA / play+0.031
- 40.3%Success rate45.2%
- -0.139EPA / dropback+0.082
- -0.181EPA / rush-0.031
- 7.4%Explosive rate9.6%
- -1.42CPOE-1.95
- 33.3%Third-down rate46.2%
- 45.5%Red-zone TD rate71.3%
- 1.33Points / drive2.26
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 47.7 points. DAL are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 21/37 | 233 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 21 | 82 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Deon Jackson | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Parris Campbell | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Pierce | 4 | 8 | 86 | 1 |
| Parris Campbell | 4 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Jelani Woods | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 4 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Ashton Dulin | 1 | 2 | 14 | 1 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Deon Jackson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 20/30 | 170 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 12 | 91 | 7.6 | 2 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 17 | 77 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Malik Davis | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 1 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 5 | 7 | 71 | 1 |
| Dalton Schultz | 2 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 4 | 7 | 23 | 2 |
| Noah Brown | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Jake Ferguson | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
1.58%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.9%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.57
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.32
- Expected margin+5.59