Closing spread
MIN -2.5
Total
45
Model margin
+2.0est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.042EPA / play-0.035
- 44.6%Success rate40.6%
- +0.128EPA / dropback+0.016
- -0.092EPA / rush-0.111
- 10.9%Explosive rate7.5%
- 44.4%Third-down rate36.1%
- 57.8%Red-zone TD rate48.1%
- 1.72Points / drive1.38
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.008EPA / play allowed-0.063
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 47.6 points. DEN are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 70 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q1 12:12 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| MIN | Q1 12:12 | 4 | -8 | Safety | 0–9 |
| DEN | Q1 10:37 | 11 | 66 | Field goal | 0–12 |
| MIN | Q1 5:59 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–12 |
| DEN | Q1 4:44 | 4 | 24 | Turnover | 0–12 |
| MIN | Q1 2:57 | 7 | 26 | Punt | 0–12 |
| DEN | Q2 14:46 | 9 | 15 | Punt | 0–12 |
| MIN | Q2 9:23 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–12 |
| DEN | Q2 8:22 | 3 | -6 | Opp touchdown | 7–12 |
| MIN | Q2 7:06 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 7–12 |
| DEN | Q2 7:06 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–12 |
| MIN | Q2 5:38 | 5 | 94 | Touchdown | 13–12 |
| DEN | Q2 3:28 | 14 | 75 | Turnover | 13–12 |
| MIN | Q2 0:40 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–12 |
| MIN | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 26 | Punt | 13–12 |
| DEN | Q3 8:45 | 10 | 77 | Missed field goal | 13–12 |
| MIN | Q3 3:27 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 13–12 |
| DEN | Q3 2:02 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 13–12 |
| MIN | Q3 0:58 | 9 | 59 | Touchdown | 20–12 |
| DEN | Q4 12:45 | 5 | 10 | Punt | 20–12 |
| MIN | Q4 10:29 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 20–12 |
| DEN | Q4 8:16 | 7 | 55 | Touchdown | 20–20 |
| MIN | Q4 5:09 | 12 | 73 | Field goal | 23–20 |
| DEN | Q4 0:01 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 23–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff George | 17/29 | 218 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leroy Hoard | 18 | 84 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Jeff George | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cris Carter | 8 | 11 | 144 | 2 |
| Randy Moss | 3 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Jake Reed | 3 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Andrew Glover | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Leroy Hoard | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Andrew Jordan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| David Palmer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 24/39 | 274 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olandis Gary | 19 | 79 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Derek Loville | 3 | 45 | 15.0 | 1 |
| Brian Griese | 7 | 10 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Anthony Lynn | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Smith | 7 | 11 | 117 | 0 |
| Byron Chamberlain | 5 | 9 | 42 | 1 |
| Andre Cooper | 4 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Ed McCaffrey | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Travis McGriff | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Howard Griffith | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Billy Miller | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.61
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.96