Closing spread
MIN -10
Total
40.5
Model margin
+3.3est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.054EPA / play+0.056
- 40.3%Success rate42.1%
- -0.019EPA / dropback+0.177
- -0.110EPA / rush-0.082
- 8.2%Explosive rate10.7%
- -2.47CPOE+3.53
- 32.0%Third-down rate44.0%
- 50.1%Red-zone TD rate66.9%
- 1.47Points / drive2.31
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 47.6 points. MIN are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Allen | 17/39 | 240 | 1 | 1 |
| Courtland Sutton | 1/1 | 38 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Lindsay | 16 | 67 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Brandon Allen | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 2 | -7 | -3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 5 | 9 | 113 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 4 | 8 | 77 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 4 | 10 | 60 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Troy Fumagalli | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| Devontae Booker | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 29/35 | 319 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 11 | 26 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 5 | 5 | 121 | 1 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 5 | 5 | 67 | 1 |
| Bisi Johnson | 6 | 9 | 35 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 5 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Irv Smith | 3 | 3 | 20 | 1 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
3.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.9%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.71
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+0.42
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+3.31