2019 · Week 11

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Brandon Allen

23·27

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -10

Total

40.5

Model margin

+3.3est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapVikings
  • -0.054EPA / play+0.056
  • 40.3%Success rate42.1%
  • -0.019EPA / dropback+0.177
  • -0.110EPA / rush-0.082
  • 8.2%Explosive rate10.7%
  • -2.47CPOE+3.53
  • 32.0%Third-down rate44.0%
  • 50.1%Red-zone TD rate66.9%
  • 1.47Points / drive2.31
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 47.6 points. MIN are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W11MIN @ DEN20–21DEN
2015 · W4MIN @ DEN20–23DEN
2011 · W13DEN @ MIN35–32DEN
2007 · W17MIN @ DEN19–22DEN
2003 · W7DEN @ MIN20–28MIN
1999 · W8MIN @ DEN23–20MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–MIN
DENQ1 15:00651Field goal3–0
MINQ1 11:3239Punt3–0
DENQ1 10:023-1Punt3–0
MINQ1 9:0338Punt3–0
DENQ1 7:02766Touchdown10–0
MINQ1 4:3954Punt10–0
DENQ1 2:271069Touchdown17–0
MINQ2 12:21717Punt17–0
DENQ2 8:281126Punt17–0
MINQ2 3:052-8Turnover17–0
DENQ2 2:4036Field goal20–0
MINQ2 1:0600Turnover20–0
DENQ2 1:0010Turnover20–0
MINQ2 0:52517Punt20–0
MINQ3 15:00975Touchdown20–7
DENQ3 11:291152Field goal23–7
MINQ3 4:231970Touchdown23–13
DENQ4 13:2534Punt23–13
MINQ4 10:56362Touchdown23–20
DENQ4 10:21550Missed field goal23–20
MINQ4 8:15567Touchdown23–27
DENQ4 6:011971End of half23–27

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brandon Allen17/3924011
Courtland Sutton1/13800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Phillip Lindsay16674.20
Royce Freeman8313.90
Brandon Allen3186.00
Courtland Sutton2105.00
Devontae Booker144.00
Noah Fant2-7-3.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Courtland Sutton591130
Tim Patrick48770
Noah Fant410600
Royce Freeman11140
Phillip Lindsay2280
Troy Fumagalli1331
Devontae Booker0200

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins29/3531930

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook11262.41
Ameer Abdullah155.00
Alexander Mattison351.70
Kirk Cousins210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs551211
Kyle Rudolph55671
Bisi Johnson69350
Dalvin Cook56310
Tyler Conklin23280
Irv Smith33201
Ameer Abdullah22110
Laquon Treadwell0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

3.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.9%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.71
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.42
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+3.31