2015 · Week 4

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Teddy Bridgewater

20·23

Broncos

Denver

QB Peyton Manning

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

DEN -7

Total

43.5

Model margin

+1.9est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

4.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapBroncos
  • +0.022EPA / play-0.070
  • 40.7%Success rate40.5%
  • +0.050EPA / dropback-0.041
  • -0.013EPA / rush-0.118
  • 9.6%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +2.87CPOE-1.92
  • 39.2%Third-down rate35.2%
  • 57.3%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
  • 1.94Points / drive1.47
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 47.6 points. DEN are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W11MIN @ DEN20–21DEN
2019 · W11DEN @ MIN23–27MIN
2011 · W13DEN @ MIN35–32DEN
2007 · W17MIN @ DEN19–22DEN
2003 · W7DEN @ MIN20–28MIN
1999 · W8MIN @ DEN23–20MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–DEN
MINQ1 15:0061Punt0–0
DENQ1 11:21643Field goal0–3
MINQ1 8:161337Punt0–3
DENQ1 0:4641Punt0–3
MINQ2 14:06632Missed field goal0–9
DENQ2 11:35172Touchdown0–10
MINQ2 11:2431Punt0–10
DENQ2 9:44628Field goal0–13
MINQ2 5:571355Field goal3–13
DENQ2 1:39635Turnover3–13
MINQ2 0:23222Touchdown10–13
DENQ2 0:1200End of half10–13
DENQ3 15:00962Touchdown10–20
MINQ3 11:1035Punt10–20
DENQ3 9:0448Punt10–20
MINQ3 7:1635Punt10–20
DENQ3 5:23832Punt10–20
MINQ4 14:491097Touchdown17–20
DENQ4 10:01215Turnover17–20
MINQ4 9:07848Field goal20–20
DENQ4 5:11950Field goal20–23
MINQ4 1:51622Turnover20–23
DENQ4 0:2900End of half20–23

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater27/4126910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson16815.11
Teddy Bridgewater3237.70
Jerick McKinnon166.00
Matt Asiata133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs610870
Mike Wallace810831
Adam Thielen68700
Adrian Peterson46130
Cordarrelle Patterson1190
Kyle Rudolph2470
MyCole Pruitt0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning17/2721312

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ronnie Hillman111039.41
C.J. Anderson11433.90
Peyton Manning2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas912930
Emmanuel Sanders36680
C.J. Anderson11270
Bennie Fowler11110
Owen Daniels2591
Ronnie Hillman1150
Andre Caldwell0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

4.67%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.2%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.57
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.92