Closing spread
DEN -7
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.022EPA / play-0.070
- 40.7%Success rate40.5%
- +0.050EPA / dropback-0.041
- -0.013EPA / rush-0.118
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.0%
- +2.87CPOE-1.92
- 39.2%Third-down rate35.2%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
- 1.94Points / drive1.47
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 47.6 points. DEN are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 27/41 | 269 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 16 | 81 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 6 | 10 | 87 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 8 | 10 | 83 | 1 |
| Adam Thielen | 6 | 8 | 70 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 4 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 17/27 | 213 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Hillman | 11 | 103 | 9.4 | 1 |
| C.J. Anderson | 11 | 43 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 9 | 12 | 93 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 3 | 6 | 68 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| Bennie Fowler | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Owen Daniels | 2 | 5 | 9 | 1 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
4.67%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.2%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.57
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.92