Closing spread
MIN -3
Total
41
Model margin
+1.2est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.033EPA / play-0.001
- 43.2%Success rate42.8%
- -0.029EPA / dropback+0.071
- -0.037EPA / rush-0.100
- 10.4%Explosive rate9.4%
- -0.23CPOE+1.55
- 35.8%Third-down rate40.0%
- 68.8%Red-zone TD rate49.6%
- 1.51Points / drive1.46
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 47.6 points. DEN are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarvaris Jackson | 16/31 | 175 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester Taylor | 10 | 83 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 4 | 36 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 11 | 36 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 26/37 | 246 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selvin Young | 22 | 87 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 2 | 31 | 15.5 | 0 |
| Andre Hall | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.3%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.19