Closing spread
MIN -3
Total
41
Model margin
+1.2est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.033EPA / play-0.001
- 43.2%Success rate42.8%
- -0.029EPA / dropback+0.071
- -0.037EPA / rush-0.100
- 10.4%Explosive rate9.4%
- -0.23CPOE+1.55
- 35.8%Third-down rate40.0%
- 68.8%Red-zone TD rate49.6%
- 1.51Points / drive1.46
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 47.6 points. DEN are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 35 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 12:59 | 10 | 78 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 7:35 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 5:56 | 12 | 56 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| DEN | Q2 14:51 | 7 | 62 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| MIN | Q2 11:25 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–7 |
| DEN | Q2 9:27 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 3–7 |
| MIN | Q2 6:51 | 3 | 20 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| DEN | Q2 6:03 | 8 | 58 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| MIN | Q2 1:54 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–14 |
| DEN | Q2 1:10 | 2 | 9 | End of half | 3–14 |
| MIN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–14 |
| DEN | Q3 13:58 | 12 | 52 | Field goal | 3–17 |
| MIN | Q3 7:35 | 6 | 27 | Punt | 3–17 |
| DEN | Q3 3:11 | 7 | 36 | Punt | 3–17 |
| MIN | Q4 14:03 | 4 | 16 | Safety | 3–19 |
| DEN | Q4 13:04 | 9 | 43 | Turnover on downs | 3–19 |
| MIN | Q4 8:04 | 8 | 69 | Touchdown | 11–19 |
| DEN | Q4 5:18 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 11–19 |
| MIN | Q4 4:12 | 6 | 60 | Touchdown | 19–19 |
| DEN | Q4 2:21 | 6 | 50 | Turnover on downs | 19–19 |
| MIN | Q4 0:39 | 3 | 4 | End of half | 19–19 |
| MIN | OT | 2 | -7 | Turnover | 19–22 |
| DEN | OT | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 19–22 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarvaris Jackson | 16/31 | 175 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester Taylor | 10 | 83 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 4 | 36 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 11 | 36 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 26/37 | 246 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selvin Young | 22 | 87 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 2 | 31 | 15.5 | 0 |
| Andre Hall | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.3%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.19