Closing spread
MIN -4
Total
44
Model margin
+8.6est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.045EPA / play+0.079
- 44.6%Success rate45.9%
- +0.043EPA / dropback+0.164
- +0.047EPA / rush-0.044
- 8.6%Explosive rate9.7%
- 39.9%Third-down rate46.9%
- 57.7%Red-zone TD rate62.7%
- 1.96Points / drive1.96
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.073EPA / play allowed-0.008
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 47.6 points. MIN are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Beuerlein | 9/19 | 119 | 0 | 3 |
| Danny Kanell | 12/18 | 104 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 25 | 117 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Mike Anderson | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Chris Cole | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 19/26 | 277 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moe Williams | 14 | 42 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Onterrio Smith | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Charles Stackhouse | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
71.2%
Expected total
46.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.77
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+4.71
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+8.60