Closing spread
MIN -1
Total
37.5
Model margin
+2.2est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play-0.054
- 39.5%Success rate39.2%
- -0.100EPA / dropback-0.073
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.026
- 10.3%Explosive rate10.1%
- -6.16CPOE-5.80
- 30.8%Third-down rate38.8%
- 57.0%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
- 1.16Points / drive1.60
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 47.6 points. MIN are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Tebow | 10/15 | 202 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 20 | 111 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Lance Ball | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Tim Tebow | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 4 | 7 | 144 | 2 |
| Eric Decker | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Lance Ball | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Matt Willis | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Ponder | 29/47 | 381 | 3 | 2 |
| Joe Webb | 1/1 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toby Gerhart | 21 | 91 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Christian Ponder | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Joe Webb | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Lorenzo Booker | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percy Harvin | 8 | 9 | 156 | 2 |
| Devin Aromashodu | 6 | 15 | 90 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 8 | 8 | 42 | 0 |
| Stephen Burton | 2 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 4 | 8 | 36 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 1 | 1 | 19 | 1 |
| Lorenzo Booker | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Joe Webb | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.1%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.25
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.24