2011 · Week 13

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Tim Tebow

35·32

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Christian Ponder

Mall of America Field · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -1

Total

37.5

Model margin

+2.2est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapVikings
  • -0.089EPA / play-0.054
  • 39.5%Success rate39.2%
  • -0.100EPA / dropback-0.073
  • -0.078EPA / rush-0.026
  • 10.3%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -6.16CPOE-5.80
  • 30.8%Third-down rate38.8%
  • 57.0%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
  • 1.16Points / drive1.60
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 47.6 points. MIN are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W11MIN @ DEN20–21DEN
2019 · W11DEN @ MIN23–27MIN
2015 · W4MIN @ DEN20–23DEN
2007 · W17MIN @ DEN19–22DEN
2003 · W7DEN @ MIN20–28MIN
1999 · W8MIN @ DEN23–20MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–MIN
MINQ1 15:00514Punt0–2
DENQ1 12:441-1Safety0–2
MINQ1 12:39923Turnover0–2
DENQ1 8:0438Punt0–2
MINQ1 6:3222Opp touchdown7–2
MINQ1 5:423-2Punt7–2
DENQ1 3:5118Turnover7–2
MINQ1 3:45514Field goal7–5
DENQ1 1:2439Punt7–5
MINQ2 14:49426Punt7–5
DENQ2 13:13623Punt7–5
MINQ2 9:301296Touchdown7–12
DENQ2 3:333-1Punt7–12
MINQ2 1:55526Punt7–12
DENQ2 0:5422Turnover7–12
MINQ2 0:39315Field goal7–15
DENQ3 15:00978Touchdown14–15
MINQ3 11:18528Punt14–15
DENQ3 8:2939Punt14–15
MINQ3 6:35795Touchdown14–22
DENQ3 3:12141Touchdown21–22
MINQ3 2:48624Punt21–22
DENQ4 14:45632Punt21–22
MINQ4 11:17564Touchdown21–29
DENQ4 9:41266Touchdown29–29
MINQ4 8:521364Field goal29–32
DENQ4 3:06652Field goal32–32
MINQ4 1:3310Turnover32–32
DENQ4 1:25510Field goal35–32

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tim Tebow10/1520220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Willis McGahee201115.51
Lance Ball7253.60
Tim Tebow4133.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas471442
Eric Decker24250
Lance Ball22140
Matt Willis11120
Eddie Royal1170

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Christian Ponder29/4738132
Joe Webb1/1800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Toby Gerhart21914.30
Percy Harvin5193.80
Christian Ponder11212.00
Joe Webb144.00
Lorenzo Booker231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Percy Harvin891562
Devin Aromashodu615900
Toby Gerhart88420
Stephen Burton23380
Visanthe Shiancoe48360
Kyle Rudolph11191
Lorenzo Booker1180
Joe Webb0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.1%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.25
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.24