Closing spread
DEN -2.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.025EPA / play-0.046
- 43.2%Success rate42.3%
- +0.039EPA / dropback-0.005
- -0.158EPA / rush-0.110
- 9.4%Explosive rate8.6%
- +2.80CPOE+3.74
- 37.5%Third-down rate36.8%
- 56.4%Red-zone TD rate59.0%
- 1.84Points / drive1.87
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 47.6 points. DEN are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Dobbs | 20/32 | 221 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Mattison | 18 | 81 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Ty Chandler | 10 | 73 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 8 | 21 | 2.6 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Hockenson | 4 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | 4 | 4 | 47 | 1 |
| Jordan Addison | 3 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Ty Chandler | 4 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| K.J. Osborn | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 27/35 | 259 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 11 | 37 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 4 | 5 | 66 | 1 |
| Samaje Perine | 7 | 7 | 60 | 0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 5 | 7 | 58 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 5 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.96
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.59