2023 · Week 11

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Joshua Dobbs

20·21

Broncos

Denver

QB Russell Wilson

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 53°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

DEN -2.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+2.6est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapBroncos
  • -0.025EPA / play-0.046
  • 43.2%Success rate42.3%
  • +0.039EPA / dropback-0.005
  • -0.158EPA / rush-0.110
  • 9.4%Explosive rate8.6%
  • +2.80CPOE+3.74
  • 37.5%Third-down rate36.8%
  • 56.4%Red-zone TD rate59.0%
  • 1.84Points / drive1.87
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 47.6 points. DEN are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2019 · W11DEN @ MIN23–27MIN
2015 · W4MIN @ DEN20–23DEN
2011 · W13DEN @ MIN35–32DEN
2007 · W17MIN @ DEN19–22DEN
2003 · W7DEN @ MIN20–28MIN
1999 · W8MIN @ DEN23–20MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–DEN
MINQ1 15:0039Turnover0–0
DENQ1 13:30517Field goal0–3
MINQ1 10:28738Punt0–3
DENQ1 6:4338Punt0–3
MINQ1 5:011065Touchdown7–3
DENQ2 14:5337Punt7–3
MINQ2 13:17855Field goal10–3
DENQ2 8:09663Field goal10–6
MINQ2 4:08733Punt10–6
DENQ2 1:11646Field goal10–9
DENQ3 15:0048Punt10–9
MINQ3 12:331055Touchdown17–9
DENQ3 7:5537Punt17–9
MINQ3 6:23646Turnover17–9
DENQ3 2:48951Field goal17–12
MINQ4 12:4020Turnover17–12
DENQ4 12:30414Field goal17–15
MINQ4 10:371473Field goal20–15
DENQ4 3:171075Touchdown20–21
MINQ4 1:03811Turnover on downs20–21
DENQ4 0:1600End of half20–21

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joshua Dobbs20/3222111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alexander Mattison18814.50
Ty Chandler10737.30
Joshua Dobbs8212.61

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.J. Hockenson47550
Josh Oliver44471
Jordan Addison36440
Ty Chandler44370
Brandon Powell34320
K.J. Osborn1270
Alexander Mattison12-10

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson27/3525910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javonte Williams11373.40
Samaje Perine177.00
Russell Wilson210.50
Jaleel McLaughlin111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Courtland Sutton45661
Samaje Perine77600
Jerry Jeudy57580
Adam Trautman22330
Javonte Williams22160
Jaleel McLaughlin55140
Marvin Mims Jr.23120
Lil'Jordan Humphrey0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.0%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.96
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.59