Closing spread
NYJ -7
Total
35
Model margin
+2.8est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.176EPA / play-0.030
- 35.9%Success rate38.9%
- -0.148EPA / dropback+0.047
- -0.226EPA / rush-0.130
- 5.9%Explosive rate7.9%
- 33.3%Third-down rate34.6%
- 53.1%Red-zone TD rate40.9%
- 0.87Points / drive1.28
- 3.8%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.001EPA / play allowed-0.034
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999
ARI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 35.3 points. NYJ are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dave Brown | 16/26 | 199 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 9 | 41 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Adrian Murrell | 7 | 10 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Dave Brown | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Moore | 3 | 8 | 98 | 0 |
| Frank Sanders | 5 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Adrian Murrell | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Johnny McWilliams | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Terry Hardy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rick Mirer | 12/18 | 122 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 38 | 131 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Rick Mirer | 7 | 41 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Keyshawn Johnson | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyshawn Johnson | 2 | 2 | 51 | 1 |
| Fred Baxter | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Wayne Chrebet | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Dedric Ward | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Bernie Parmalee | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
4.77%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.6%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.08
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.38
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+2.82