1999 · Week 9

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Dave Brown

7·12

Jets

New York

QB Rick Mirer

Giants Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 48°F · wind 20mph

Closing spread

NYJ -7

Total

35

Model margin

+2.8est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapJets
  • -0.176EPA / play-0.030
  • 35.9%Success rate38.9%
  • -0.148EPA / dropback+0.047
  • -0.226EPA / rush-0.130
  • 5.9%Explosive rate7.9%
  • 33.3%Third-down rate34.6%
  • 53.1%Red-zone TD rate40.9%
  • 0.87Points / drive1.28
  • 3.8%Turnover rate1.9%
  • -0.001EPA / play allowed-0.034

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999

ARI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 35.3 points. NYJ are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W10NYJ @ ARI6–31ARI
2020 · W5ARI @ NYJ30–10ARI
2016 · W6NYJ @ ARI3–28ARI
2012 · W13ARI @ NYJ6–7NYJ
2008 · W4ARI @ NYJ35–56NYJ
2004 · W12NYJ @ ARI13–3NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–NYJ
ARIQ1 15:00436Turnover0–0
NYJQ1 12:5739Punt0–0
ARIQ1 11:2532Punt0–0
NYJQ1 9:53726Field goal0–3
ARIQ1 6:383-4Punt0–3
NYJQ1 4:45844Turnover on downs0–3
ARIQ1 0:29623Punt0–3
NYJQ2 12:581144Missed field goal0–3
ARIQ2 6:42380Touchdown7–3
NYJQ2 5:0986Punt7–3
ARIQ2 2:0033Punt7–3
NYJQ2 1:19422Punt7–3
ARIQ2 0:07117End of half7–3
NYJQ3 15:00523Punt7–3
ARIQ3 11:4048Punt7–3
NYJQ3 9:00947Field goal7–6
ARIQ3 3:07721Punt7–6
NYJQ4 14:1739Punt7–6
ARIQ4 12:46622Punt7–6
NYJQ4 9:4636Punt7–6
ARIQ4 8:19419Punt7–6
NYJQ4 6:44341Touchdown7–12
ARIQ4 5:213-9Punt7–12
NYJQ4 4:2838Missed field goal7–12
ARIQ4 2:504-12Punt7–12
NYJQ4 1:20211End of half7–12

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dave Brown16/2619900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Pittman9414.61
Adrian Murrell7101.40
Dave Brown133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rob Moore38980
Frank Sanders58440
Adrian Murrell33190
Johnny McWilliams22120
Michael Pittman23110
Terry Hardy0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Rick Mirer12/1812210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Curtis Martin381313.40
Rick Mirer7415.90
Keyshawn Johnson11212.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keyshawn Johnson22511
Fred Baxter12240
Wayne Chrebet23190
Dedric Ward13110
Bernie Parmalee1180
Curtis Martin4520

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

4.77%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.6%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.08
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.38
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+2.82