Closing spread
NYJ -2
Total
45.5
Model margin
+3.3est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.001EPA / play+0.067
- 43.0%Success rate47.3%
- +0.053EPA / dropback+0.126
- -0.108EPA / rush-0.023
- 8.8%Explosive rate10.0%
- -1.89CPOE+2.11
- 39.7%Third-down rate43.0%
- 57.9%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
- 1.85Points / drive2.31
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999
ARI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 35.3 points. ARI are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 22/35 | 151 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 10 | 52 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Braelon Allen | 7 | 27 | 3.9 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 5 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 6 | 13 | 31 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Isaiah Davis | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Braelon Allen | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Kenny Yeboah | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Malachi Corley | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Xavier Gipson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 22/24 | 266 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Benson | 10 | 62 | 6.2 | 0 |
| James Conner | 12 | 33 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Emari Demercado | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 2 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Clayton Tune | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 5 | 5 | 80 | 0 |
| Trey McBride | 4 | 5 | 71 | 0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 5 | 5 | 54 | 1 |
| Trey Benson | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Michael Wilson | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Elijah Higgins | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Greg Dortch | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
1.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.9%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.82
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+3.29