2012 · Week 13

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Ryan Lindley

6·7

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 46°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

NYJ -6

Total

37

Model margin

+6.7est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapJets
  • -0.259EPA / play-0.101
  • 35.1%Success rate41.7%
  • -0.267EPA / dropback-0.139
  • -0.242EPA / rush-0.054
  • 6.0%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -8.47CPOE-5.39
  • 25.9%Third-down rate36.9%
  • 36.3%Red-zone TD rate47.4%
  • 0.79Points / drive1.20
  • 3.0%Turnover rate3.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999

ARI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 35.3 points. NYJ are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W10NYJ @ ARI6–31ARI
2020 · W5ARI @ NYJ30–10ARI
2016 · W6NYJ @ ARI3–28ARI
2008 · W4ARI @ NYJ35–56NYJ
2004 · W12NYJ @ ARI13–3NYJ
1999 · W9ARI @ NYJ7–12NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–NYJ
ARIQ1 15:00728Punt0–0
NYJQ1 12:0610Turnover0–0
ARIQ1 11:5848Turnover on downs0–0
NYJQ1 10:07954Missed field goal0–0
ARIQ1 5:1537Punt0–0
NYJQ1 3:44641Turnover0–0
ARIQ1 0:2833Punt0–0
NYJQ2 14:4836Punt0–0
ARIQ2 12:5832Punt0–0
NYJQ2 11:4224Turnover0–0
ARIQ2 10:5331Turnover0–0
NYJQ2 9:4733Missed field goal0–0
ARIQ2 8:2035Punt0–0
NYJQ2 7:231038Punt0–0
ARIQ2 2:31961Field goal3–0
NYJQ3 15:0035Punt3–0
ARIQ3 13:5333Punt3–0
NYJQ3 12:2058Punt3–0
ARIQ3 9:4837Punt3–0
NYJQ3 8:2035Punt3–0
ARIQ3 6:493-4Punt3–0
NYJQ3 4:481149Touchdown3–7
ARIQ4 14:5533Punt3–7
NYJQ4 14:0136Turnover3–7
ARIQ4 12:32518Field goal6–7
NYJQ4 10:3934Punt6–7
ARIQ4 9:123-5Punt6–7
NYJQ4 7:551566End of half6–7

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Lindley10/317201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Wells15221.50
William Powell4184.50
LaRod Stephens-Howling111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald17230
Michael Floyd210220
Rob Housler46150
Early Doucet25130
LaRod Stephens-Howling13-10

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez10/219703
Greg McElroy5/72910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shonn Greene241044.30
Bilal Powell12584.80
Joe McKnight284.00
Greg McElroy451.30
Mark Sanchez122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stephen Hill58400
Jeremy Kerley36370
Jeff Cumberland24251
Dustin Keller22170
Chaz Schilens2450
Kahlil Bell1120
Bilal Powell0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.1%6.0%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%2.6%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

3.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.8%

Expected total

39.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.23
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.79
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+6.74