Closing spread
NYJ -6
Total
37
Model margin
+6.7est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.259EPA / play-0.101
- 35.1%Success rate41.7%
- -0.267EPA / dropback-0.139
- -0.242EPA / rush-0.054
- 6.0%Explosive rate7.8%
- -8.47CPOE-5.39
- 25.9%Third-down rate36.9%
- 36.3%Red-zone TD rate47.4%
- 0.79Points / drive1.20
- 3.0%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999
ARI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 35.3 points. NYJ are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Lindley | 10/31 | 72 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Wells | 15 | 22 | 1.5 | 0 |
| William Powell | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 1 | 7 | 23 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 2 | 10 | 22 | 0 |
| Rob Housler | 4 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Early Doucet | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 10/21 | 97 | 0 | 3 |
| Greg McElroy | 5/7 | 29 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shonn Greene | 24 | 104 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 12 | 58 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Joe McKnight | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Greg McElroy | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Hill | 5 | 8 | 40 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 3 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Jeff Cumberland | 2 | 4 | 25 | 1 |
| Dustin Keller | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Chaz Schilens | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Kahlil Bell | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.8%
Expected total
39.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.23
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.79
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+6.74