2016 · Week 6

Final

Jets

New York

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

3·28

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Carson Palmer

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -7.5

Total

46

Model margin

+5.3est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapCardinals
  • -0.069EPA / play-0.005
  • 40.5%Success rate45.3%
  • -0.069EPA / dropback+0.043
  • -0.070EPA / rush-0.093
  • 9.3%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -4.70CPOE-0.78
  • 36.5%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 47.6%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
  • 1.40Points / drive1.89
  • 3.2%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999

ARI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 35.3 points. ARI are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W10NYJ @ ARI6–31ARI
2020 · W5ARI @ NYJ30–10ARI
2012 · W13ARI @ NYJ6–7NYJ
2008 · W4ARI @ NYJ35–56NYJ
2004 · W12NYJ @ ARI13–3NYJ
1999 · W9ARI @ NYJ7–12NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–ARI
ARIQ1 15:00521Punt0–0
NYJQ1 12:1233Punt0–6
ARIQ1 10:03158Touchdown0–7
NYJQ1 9:51418Punt0–7
ARIQ1 7:18915Punt0–7
NYJQ1 3:3034Punt0–7
ARIQ1 1:5036Punt0–7
NYJQ1 0:17854Field goal3–7
ARIQ2 12:061256Touchdown3–14
NYJQ2 6:4331Punt3–14
ARIQ2 5:3935Punt3–14
NYJQ2 4:0639Punt3–14
ARIQ2 2:41633Punt3–14
NYJQ2 1:23641Punt3–14
ARIQ2 0:0400End of half3–14
NYJQ3 15:0036Punt3–14
ARIQ3 13:011674Touchdown3–21
NYJQ3 5:241366Turnover3–21
ARIQ3 0:461491Touchdown3–28
NYJQ4 8:20928Turnover3–28
ARIQ4 4:20639End of half3–28

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick16/3117401
Geno Smith4/63101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte9192.10
Bilal Powell3103.30
Ryan Fitzpatrick122.00
Geno Smith122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall36700
Charone Peake510430
Quincy Enunwa35420
Robbie Chosen46240
Bilal Powell34120
Jalin Marshall13110
Matt Forte1330

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer23/3421310
Drew Stanton1/11200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Johnson221115.03
Andre Ellington5255.00
J.J. Nelson22311.50
Stepfan Taylor2147.00
Carson Palmer3-1-0.30
Drew Stanton1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
John Brown57540
Larry Fitzgerald69490
Jaron Brown45350
David Johnson36270
Michael Floyd22221
J.J. Nelson22160
Jermaine Gresham12140
Darren Fells1180
Ifeanyi Momah0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.4%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.21%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.0%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.28
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+5.26