Closing spread
ARI -7.5
Total
46
Model margin
+5.3est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.069EPA / play-0.005
- 40.5%Success rate45.3%
- -0.069EPA / dropback+0.043
- -0.070EPA / rush-0.093
- 9.3%Explosive rate8.5%
- -4.70CPOE-0.78
- 36.5%Third-down rate40.4%
- 47.6%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
- 1.40Points / drive1.89
- 3.2%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999
ARI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 35.3 points. ARI are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 16/31 | 174 | 0 | 1 |
| Geno Smith | 4/6 | 31 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 9 | 19 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 3 | 6 | 70 | 0 |
| Charone Peake | 5 | 10 | 43 | 0 |
| Quincy Enunwa | 3 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 4 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Jalin Marshall | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 23/34 | 213 | 1 | 0 |
| Drew Stanton | 1/1 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 22 | 111 | 5.0 | 3 |
| Andre Ellington | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 |
| J.J. Nelson | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 0 |
| Stepfan Taylor | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
| Drew Stanton | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Brown | 5 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 6 | 9 | 49 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 3 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 2 | 2 | 22 | 1 |
| J.J. Nelson | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Ifeanyi Momah | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.0%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.28
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+5.26