Closing spread
NYJ -3
Total
36.5
Model margin
+4.3est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
6.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.040EPA / play-0.097
- 45.5%Success rate38.1%
- +0.023EPA / dropback-0.074
- +0.058EPA / rush-0.128
- 10.3%Explosive rate7.0%
- 42.9%Third-down rate34.7%
- 64.3%Red-zone TD rate58.0%
- 1.86Points / drive1.19
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.048EPA / play allowed-0.081
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999
ARI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 35.3 points. ARI are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYJ–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 13:16 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 11:47 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 9:46 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 7:34 | 10 | 48 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 2:07 | 7 | 22 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q2 13:32 | 6 | 25 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q2 10:23 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q2 8:58 | 11 | 45 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| ARI | Q2 3:28 | 10 | 57 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 33 | Punt | 3–3 |
| NYJ | Q3 10:17 | 10 | 57 | Field goal | 6–3 |
| ARI | Q3 4:53 | 5 | -2 | Punt | 12–3 |
| NYJ | Q3 2:51 | 1 | 69 | Touchdown | 13–3 |
| ARI | Q3 2:41 | 12 | 38 | Turnover | 13–3 |
| NYJ | Q4 12:46 | 10 | 31 | Punt | 13–3 |
| ARI | Q4 7:05 | 2 | 16 | Turnover | 13–3 |
| NYJ | Q4 6:23 | 7 | 28 | Punt | 13–3 |
| ARI | Q4 3:08 | 8 | 50 | Turnover | 13–3 |
| NYJ | Q4 1:50 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 13–3 |
| ARI | Q4 0:04 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 13–3 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Carter | 8/12 | 133 | 1 | 0 |
| Brooks Bollinger | 5/9 | 60 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 24 | 99 | 4.1 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 12 | 43 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Quincy Carter | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brooks Bollinger | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun King | 14/26 | 119 | 0 | 1 |
| Josh McCown | 5/10 | 62 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Croom | 10 | 25 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Shaun King | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Josh Scobey | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
6.59%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.6%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.16
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.93
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.34