Closing spread
NYJ -1.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.052EPA / play+0.038
- 45.0%Success rate47.0%
- +0.144EPA / dropback+0.031
- -0.140EPA / rush+0.048
- 8.6%Explosive rate9.0%
- +5.02CPOE+3.75
- 43.3%Third-down rate40.6%
- 58.6%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
- 2.12Points / drive1.85
- 2.8%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999
ARI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 35.3 points. NYJ are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 40/57 | 472 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 9 | 29 | 3.2 | 2 |
| Tim Hightower | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 1 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 24/34 | 289 | 6 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 18 | 46 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.3%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.05
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.45