2008 · Week 4

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kurt Warner

35·56

Jets

New York

QB Brett Favre

Giants Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 69°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

NYJ -1.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+3.5est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapJets
  • +0.052EPA / play+0.038
  • 45.0%Success rate47.0%
  • +0.144EPA / dropback+0.031
  • -0.140EPA / rush+0.048
  • 8.6%Explosive rate9.0%
  • +5.02CPOE+3.75
  • 43.3%Third-down rate40.6%
  • 58.6%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
  • 2.12Points / drive1.85
  • 2.8%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999

ARI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 35.3 points. NYJ are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W10NYJ @ ARI6–31ARI
2020 · W5ARI @ NYJ30–10ARI
2016 · W6NYJ @ ARI3–28ARI
2012 · W13ARI @ NYJ6–7NYJ
2004 · W12NYJ @ ARI13–3NYJ
1999 · W9ARI @ NYJ7–12NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
ARIQ1 13:151250Turnover0–0
NYJQ1 7:4039Turnover0–0
ARIQ1 6:3238Missed field goal0–0
NYJQ1 5:021159Touchdown0–7
ARIQ2 14:4432Opp touchdown0–14
ARIQ2 13:25626Punt0–14
NYJQ2 9:44483Touchdown0–21
NYJQ2 7:1700Touchdown0–21
ARIQ2 7:1710Turnover0–21
NYJQ2 7:0014Field goal0–21
NYJQ2 6:1766Field goal0–24
ARIQ2 3:32314Turnover0–24
NYJQ2 2:00837Touchdown0–31
ARIQ2 0:101-8Turnover0–34
NYJQ2 0:0200Field goal0–34
ARIQ3 15:00743Touchdown7–34
NYJQ3 12:3939Punt7–34
ARIQ3 10:471381Touchdown15–34
NYJQ3 5:4100Touchdown15–34
ARIQ3 5:41759Touchdown21–34
NYJQ3 2:501470Touchdown21–41
ARIQ4 11:50662Touchdown28–41
NYJQ4 9:49449Touchdown28–48
ARIQ4 7:26666Touchdown35–48
NYJQ4 4:4900Missed field goal35–48
NYJQ4 4:49513Missed field goal35–48
NYJQ4 3:1100Missed field goal35–48
ARIQ4 3:061-6Turnover35–48
NYJQ4 2:58429Touchdown35–56
ARIQ4 1:54971Turnover35–56

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kurt Warner40/5747223

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Edgerrin James9293.22
Tim Hightower6132.21

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre24/3428961

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Jones18462.60
Leon Washington7263.70
Brad Smith11717.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.3%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.05
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+3.45