Closing spread
ARI -7
Total
48.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
3.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.051EPA / play-0.116
- 46.0%Success rate40.9%
- +0.087EPA / dropback-0.098
- -0.009EPA / rush-0.146
- 9.3%Explosive rate7.4%
- +2.07CPOE-2.07
- 40.2%Third-down rate34.4%
- 71.9%Red-zone TD rate41.2%
- 2.19Points / drive1.24
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999
ARI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 35.3 points. NYJ are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 27/37 | 380 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyan Drake | 18 | 60 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Chase Edmonds | 3 | 36 | 12.0 | 1 |
| Kyler Murray | 9 | 31 | 3.4 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 6 | 7 | 131 | 1 |
| Christian Kirk | 5 | 7 | 78 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 5 | 6 | 56 | 0 |
| Darrell Daniels | 2 | 2 | 37 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 4 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Andy Isabella | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| KeeSean Johnson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 18/33 | 195 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 13 | 60 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 9 | 30 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Trevon Wesco | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamison Crowder | 8 | 10 | 116 | 1 |
| Chris Herndon | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Jeff Smith | 3 | 11 | 23 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Trevon Wesco | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
3.68%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.9%
Expected total
40.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.94
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+4.06
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+4.06