2020 · Week 5

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

30·10

Jets

New York

QB Joe Flacco

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 64°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

ARI -7

Total

48.5

Model margin

+4.1est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

3.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapJets
  • +0.051EPA / play-0.116
  • 46.0%Success rate40.9%
  • +0.087EPA / dropback-0.098
  • -0.009EPA / rush-0.146
  • 9.3%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +2.07CPOE-2.07
  • 40.2%Third-down rate34.4%
  • 71.9%Red-zone TD rate41.2%
  • 2.19Points / drive1.24
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999

ARI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 35.3 points. NYJ are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W10NYJ @ ARI6–31ARI
2016 · W6NYJ @ ARI3–28ARI
2012 · W13ARI @ NYJ6–7NYJ
2008 · W4ARI @ NYJ35–56NYJ
2004 · W12NYJ @ ARI13–3NYJ
1999 · W9ARI @ NYJ7–12NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
ARIQ1 13:3635Punt0–0
NYJQ1 12:0738Punt0–0
ARIQ1 10:46889Touchdown7–0
NYJQ1 7:33515Punt7–0
ARIQ1 4:43732Punt7–0
NYJQ1 1:551669Turnover on downs7–0
ARIQ2 8:58419Turnover7–0
NYJQ2 7:4837Field goal7–3
ARIQ2 7:011276Touchdown14–3
NYJQ2 2:41743Punt14–3
ARIQ2 0:53452Field goal17–3
NYJQ2 0:0300End of half17–3
ARIQ3 15:00620Punt17–3
NYJQ3 11:5739Punt17–3
ARIQ3 10:22419Punt17–3
NYJQ3 8:03674Touchdown17–10
ARIQ3 5:511070Touchdown24–10
NYJQ3 0:151111Punt24–10
ARIQ4 11:17896Touchdown30–10
NYJQ4 8:351240Turnover on downs30–10
ARIQ4 4:45422End of half30–10

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray27/3738011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenyan Drake18603.31
Chase Edmonds33612.01
Kyler Murray9313.41

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins671311
Christian Kirk57780
Chase Edmonds56560
Darrell Daniels22370
Larry Fitzgerald47350
Andy Isabella23300
Trent Sherfield1160
KeeSean Johnson1150
Kenyan Drake1120

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco18/3319510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell13604.60
Frank Gore9303.30
Joe Flacco4205.00
Braxton Berrios11313.00
Trevon Wesco100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jamison Crowder8101161
Chris Herndon23240
Jeff Smith311230
Chris Hogan33200
Le'Veon Bell1170
Trevon Wesco1150
Braxton Berrios0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -73.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

3.68%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.9%

Expected total

40.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.94
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+4.06
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+4.06