1999 · Week 9

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Jeff Blake

20·37

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Jon Kitna

Seattle Kingdome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

SEA -14

Total

40

Model margin

+2.9est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

2.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.068EPA / play-0.070
  • 39.4%Success rate39.0%
  • -0.034EPA / dropback+0.010
  • -0.132EPA / rush-0.193
  • 7.1%Explosive rate8.7%
  • 39.2%Third-down rate33.0%
  • 43.1%Red-zone TD rate48.6%
  • 1.24Points / drive1.40
  • 2.4%Turnover rate3.0%
  • +0.041EPA / play allowed-0.076

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 45.9 points. SEA are 1-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W6SEA @ CIN13–17CIN
2019 · W1CIN @ SEA20–21SEA
2015 · W5SEA @ CIN24–27CIN
2011 · W8CIN @ SEA34–12CIN
2007 · W3CIN @ SEA21–24SEA
2003 · W8SEA @ CIN24–27CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–SEA
CINQ1 15:00513Turnover0–0
SEAQ1 12:45419Touchdown0–7
CINQ1 12:06757Field goal3–7
SEAQ1 10:02767Touchdown3–14
CINQ1 6:36424Punt3–14
SEAQ1 3:3845Punt9–14
CINQ1 2:12175Touchdown10–14
SEAQ1 2:02528Turnover10–14
CINQ2 14:4532Punt10–14
SEAQ2 13:48751Touchdown10–21
CINQ2 10:483-4Punt10–21
SEAQ2 9:23935Touchdown10–28
CINQ2 4:59857Turnover10–28
SEAQ2 1:4948Punt10–28
CINQ2 0:10213End of half10–28
SEAQ3 15:00968Field goal10–31
CINQ3 10:451068Field goal13–31
SEAQ3 5:3810Turnover13–31
CINQ3 5:1543Turnover on downs13–31
SEAQ3 3:061247Field goal13–34
CINQ4 12:251573Touchdown20–34
CINQ4 3:5300Touchdown20–34
SEAQ4 3:53832Field goal20–37
CINQ4 1:30416End of half20–37

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff Blake18/3528712
Scott Covington2/31500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Corey Dillon16815.10
Jeff Blake5346.81
Michael Basnight111.00
Craig Yeast1-13-13.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Carl Pickens4101041
Tony McGee58770
Willie Jackson46750
Marco Battaglia33240
Nicolas Luchey22150
Michael Basnight2470
Corey Dillon0200
Darnay Scott0100

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jon Kitna14/2420232

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ricky Watters271334.91
Ahman Green9404.40
Jon Kitna100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Derrick Mayes55611
Mike Pritchard35611
Sean Dawkins37520
Christian Fauria11140
Ricky Watters1481
Charles Jordan1260

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +147.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.71%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.0%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.46
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.94