Closing spread
SEA -14
Total
40
Model margin
+2.9est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.068EPA / play-0.070
- 39.4%Success rate39.0%
- -0.034EPA / dropback+0.010
- -0.132EPA / rush-0.193
- 7.1%Explosive rate8.7%
- 39.2%Third-down rate33.0%
- 43.1%Red-zone TD rate48.6%
- 1.24Points / drive1.40
- 2.4%Turnover rate3.0%
- +0.041EPA / play allowed-0.076
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 45.9 points. SEA are 1-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Blake | 18/35 | 287 | 1 | 2 |
| Scott Covington | 2/3 | 15 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 16 | 81 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Jeff Blake | 5 | 34 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Michael Basnight | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Craig Yeast | 1 | -13 | -13.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carl Pickens | 4 | 10 | 104 | 1 |
| Tony McGee | 5 | 8 | 77 | 0 |
| Willie Jackson | 4 | 6 | 75 | 0 |
| Marco Battaglia | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Nicolas Luchey | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Michael Basnight | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Darnay Scott | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 14/24 | 202 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Watters | 27 | 133 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Ahman Green | 9 | 40 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Mayes | 5 | 5 | 61 | 1 |
| Mike Pritchard | 3 | 5 | 61 | 1 |
| Sean Dawkins | 3 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Ricky Watters | 1 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
| Charles Jordan | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.71%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.0%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.46
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.94