Closing spread
SEA -9.5
Total
44
Model margin
+3.0est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.097EPA / play+0.018
- 40.3%Success rate45.5%
- -0.076EPA / dropback+0.119
- -0.137EPA / rush-0.134
- 8.1%Explosive rate9.6%
- -5.27CPOE+7.05
- 36.0%Third-down rate39.1%
- 51.4%Red-zone TD rate65.9%
- 1.31Points / drive1.86
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 45.9 points. SEA are 1-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 35/51 | 418 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Bernard | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Ross | 7 | 12 | 158 | 2 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 4 | 5 | 66 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 8 | 12 | 60 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 2 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Damion Willis | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 4 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 5 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 14/20 | 195 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Carson | 15 | 46 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Rashaad Penny | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 4 | 6 | 89 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 1 | 2 | 44 | 1 |
| Chris Carson | 6 | 7 | 34 | 1 |
| Nick Vannett | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
3.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.2%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.31
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.05