2019 · Week 1

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

20·21

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 64°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

SEA -9.5

Total

44

Model margin

+3.0est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.097EPA / play+0.018
  • 40.3%Success rate45.5%
  • -0.076EPA / dropback+0.119
  • -0.137EPA / rush-0.134
  • 8.1%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -5.27CPOE+7.05
  • 36.0%Third-down rate39.1%
  • 51.4%Red-zone TD rate65.9%
  • 1.31Points / drive1.86
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 45.9 points. SEA are 1-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W6SEA @ CIN13–17CIN
2015 · W5SEA @ CIN24–27CIN
2011 · W8CIN @ SEA34–12CIN
2007 · W3CIN @ SEA21–24SEA
2003 · W8SEA @ CIN24–27CIN
1999 · W9CIN @ SEA20–37SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–SEA
CINQ1 15:00724Punt0–0
SEAQ1 11:5137Punt0–0
CINQ1 10:261361Field goal3–0
SEAQ1 2:483-2Punt3–0
SEAQ1 0:405-1Punt3–0
CINQ2 13:1044Punt3–0
SEAQ2 11:12849Touchdown3–7
CINQ2 6:36375Touchdown10–7
SEAQ2 5:1235Punt10–7
CINQ2 3:3539Punt10–7
SEAQ2 1:53662Touchdown10–14
CINQ2 0:52475Touchdown17–14
SEAQ2 0:0700End of half17–14
SEAQ3 15:00110Turnover17–14
CINQ3 14:4839Turnover17–14
SEAQ3 13:233-5Punt17–14
CINQ3 11:44643Missed field goal17–14
SEAQ3 7:373-5Punt17–14
CINQ3 5:30956Turnover on downs17–14
SEAQ3 2:01574Touchdown17–21
CINQ4 14:531552Field goal20–21
SEAQ4 7:0036Punt20–21
CINQ4 5:30615Punt20–21
SEAQ4 3:22634Punt20–21
CINQ4 0:2126Turnover20–21
SEAQ4 0:0900End of half20–21

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton35/5141820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Giovani Bernard7213.00
Joe Mixon6101.70
Tyler Boyd133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
John Ross7121582
C.J. Uzomah45660
Tyler Boyd812600
Giovani Bernard23420
Damion Willis35300
Alex Erickson44280
Tyler Eifert55270
Joe Mixon2370

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson14/2019520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Carson15463.11
Rashaad Penny6183.00
Russell Wilson482.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DK Metcalf46890
Tyler Lockett12441
Chris Carson67341
Nick Vannett22160
Will Dissly12120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.56.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

3.07%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.2%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.31
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.05