Closing spread
SEA -3
Total
41.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.070EPA / play+0.049
- 46.1%Success rate43.9%
- +0.148EPA / dropback+0.126
- -0.039EPA / rush-0.053
- 10.5%Explosive rate7.6%
- 46.8%Third-down rate44.6%
- 68.2%Red-zone TD rate62.0%
- 1.98Points / drive1.83
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.012EPA / play allowed+0.077
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 45.9 points. CIN are 5-1-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 26/43 | 347 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 20 | 86 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 19/31 | 240 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 27 | 101 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Peter Warrick | 1 | 50 | 50.0 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.1%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.81
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.75