2015 · Week 5

Final / OT

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

24·27

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 66°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

CIN -3

Total

44.5

Model margin

+1.2est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapBengals
  • +0.105EPA / play+0.076
  • 47.1%Success rate45.3%
  • +0.255EPA / dropback+0.229
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.144
  • 10.9%Explosive rate10.2%
  • +7.64CPOE+4.53
  • 47.8%Third-down rate39.6%
  • 63.8%Red-zone TD rate68.5%
  • 2.18Points / drive2.11
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 45.9 points. CIN are 5-1-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W6SEA @ CIN13–17CIN
2019 · W1CIN @ SEA20–21SEA
2011 · W8CIN @ SEA34–12CIN
2007 · W3CIN @ SEA21–24SEA
2003 · W8SEA @ CIN24–27CIN
1999 · W9CIN @ SEA20–37SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–CIN
CINQ1 15:00786Touchdown0–7
SEAQ1 11:02880Touchdown7–7
CINQ1 6:32632Punt7–7
SEAQ1 3:52419Punt7–7
CINQ1 1:46934Punt7–7
SEAQ2 12:39620Punt7–7
CINQ2 8:021337Turnover7–7
SEAQ2 0:54676Field goal10–7
SEAQ3 15:00765Turnover10–7
CINQ3 11:07517Punt16–7
SEAQ3 8:51169Touchdown17–7
CINQ3 8:3849Opp touchdown24–7
CINQ3 6:415-5Punt24–7
SEAQ3 5:2366Punt24–7
CINQ3 2:0346Punt24–7
SEAQ3 0:1536Punt24–7
CINQ4 13:56433Touchdown24–14
SEAQ4 12:18518Punt24–14
CINQ4 9:271171Touchdown24–21
SEAQ4 3:3836Punt24–21
CINQ4 2:17742Field goal24–24
SEAOT728Punt24–24
CINOT524Punt24–24
SEAOT44Punt24–24
CINOT533Field goal24–27

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson15/2321311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Rawls231697.31
Russell Wilson3217.00
Fred Jackson252.50
Rod Smith252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Doug Baldwin33700
Jermaine Kearse23381
Jimmy Graham35300
Fred Jackson33290
Tyler Lockett25290
Luke Willson23170

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton30/4433121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Giovani Bernard15805.30
Andy Dalton7182.61
Jeremy Hill8131.60
Rex Burkhead1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Eifert812902
A.J. Green68780
Mohamed Sanu55690
Marvin Jones58610
Giovani Bernard58210
Jeremy Hill12120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

7.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.4%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.34
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+1.23