Closing spread
CIN -3
Total
44.5
Model margin
+1.2est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.105EPA / play+0.076
- 47.1%Success rate45.3%
- +0.255EPA / dropback+0.229
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.144
- 10.9%Explosive rate10.2%
- +7.64CPOE+4.53
- 47.8%Third-down rate39.6%
- 63.8%Red-zone TD rate68.5%
- 2.18Points / drive2.11
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 45.9 points. CIN are 5-1-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 15/23 | 213 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Rawls | 23 | 169 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Russell Wilson | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Baldwin | 3 | 3 | 70 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 2 | 3 | 38 | 1 |
| Jimmy Graham | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 2 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 30/44 | 331 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Bernard | 15 | 80 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Jeremy Hill | 8 | 13 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Eifert | 8 | 12 | 90 | 2 |
| A.J. Green | 6 | 8 | 78 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 5 | 5 | 69 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 5 | 8 | 61 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 5 | 8 | 21 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.4%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.34
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.23