Closing spread
CIN -1
Total
37.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.030EPA / play-0.069
- 41.7%Success rate38.9%
- +0.005EPA / dropback-0.035
- -0.080EPA / rush-0.118
- 8.4%Explosive rate8.9%
- -2.19CPOE+0.03
- 35.5%Third-down rate33.6%
- 53.1%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
- 1.55Points / drive1.31
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 45.9 points. SEA are 1-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 18/29 | 168 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernard Scott | 22 | 76 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 4 | 10 | 63 | 1 |
| Donald Lee | 3 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 4 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Jerome Simpson | 1 | 2 | 14 | 1 |
| Brian Leonard | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarvaris Jackson | 21/40 | 323 | 0 | 1 |
| Charlie Whitehurst | 4/7 | 52 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Washington | 2 | 34 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 16 | 24 | 1.5 | 1 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Charlie Whitehurst | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Obomanu | 4 | 4 | 107 | 0 |
| Sidney Rice | 7 | 14 | 102 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 5 | 8 | 73 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Cameron Morrah | 2 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony McCoy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kris Durham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.6%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.82
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.44
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.30