2011 · Week 8

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

34·12

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Charlie Whitehurst

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 56°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

CIN -1

Total

37.5

Model margin

+1.3est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.030EPA / play-0.069
  • 41.7%Success rate38.9%
  • +0.005EPA / dropback-0.035
  • -0.080EPA / rush-0.118
  • 8.4%Explosive rate8.9%
  • -2.19CPOE+0.03
  • 35.5%Third-down rate33.6%
  • 53.1%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
  • 1.55Points / drive1.31
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 45.9 points. SEA are 1-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W6SEA @ CIN13–17CIN
2019 · W1CIN @ SEA20–21SEA
2015 · W5SEA @ CIN24–27CIN
2007 · W3CIN @ SEA21–24SEA
2003 · W8SEA @ CIN24–27CIN
1999 · W9CIN @ SEA20–37SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–SEA
CINQ1 15:001253Field goal3–0
SEAQ1 6:4438Punt3–0
CINQ1 4:59326Touchdown10–0
SEAQ1 3:47945Field goal10–3
CINQ2 14:5536Punt10–3
SEAQ2 13:3333Punt10–3
CINQ2 12:2944Punt10–3
SEAQ2 10:4110Turnover10–3
CINQ2 10:34510Punt10–3
SEAQ2 8:0468Punt10–3
CINQ2 5:27969Touchdown17–3
SEAQ2 1:51969End of half17–3
SEAQ3 15:00617Punt17–3
CINQ3 13:293-7Punt17–3
SEAQ3 11:23521Punt17–3
CINQ3 7:55841Turnover17–3
SEAQ3 4:26884Field goal17–6
CINQ3 0:04729Turnover17–6
SEAQ4 12:29784Touchdown17–12
CINQ4 8:55722Field goal20–12
SEAQ4 4:503-8Opp touchdown27–12
SEAQ4 3:22837Turnover on downs27–12
CINQ4 1:403-1Punt27–12
SEAQ4 1:12315Opp touchdown34–12
SEAQ4 0:36128End of half34–12

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton18/2916822

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bernard Scott22763.50
Brian Leonard273.50
Andrew Hawkins166.00
Andy Dalton231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green410631
Donald Lee33440
Andre Caldwell46310
Jerome Simpson12141
Brian Leonard23100
Bernard Scott3300

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tarvaris Jackson21/4032301
Charlie Whitehurst4/75200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leon Washington23417.00
Marshawn Lynch16241.51
Tarvaris Jackson122.00
Charlie Whitehurst111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ben Obomanu441070
Sidney Rice7141020
Doug Baldwin58730
Zach Miller35370
Cameron Morrah25210
Justin Forsett11130
Golden Tate24110
Leon Washington0200
Anthony McCoy0100
Kris Durham0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.6%

Expected total

41.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.82
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.44
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+1.30