Closing spread
SEA -3.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.024EPA / play+0.006
- 46.0%Success rate45.1%
- +0.100EPA / dropback+0.107
- -0.091EPA / rush-0.158
- 7.9%Explosive rate8.8%
- +5.31CPOE+2.40
- 45.6%Third-down rate35.7%
- 51.6%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
- 1.86Points / drive1.77
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 45.9 points. SEA are 1-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 27/43 | 342 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Watson | 9 | 60 | 6.7 | 1 |
| Rudi Johnson | 17 | 9 | 0.5 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Skyler Green | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 24/37 | 248 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 21 | 100 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.3%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.25
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.81